Iowa was a blow-out, and now New Hampshire, Trump’s latest decisive win, where nearly three-quarters of Republicans told pollsters they are with him. For a year, the media has tried to foster a genuine race for the Republican nomination, and, when that was clearly not happening, it tried to pretend there was a competition, or to will one into being. As recently as this past weekend, before yesterday’s New Hampshire primary, pundits were citing the many upsets in the state and imagining Nikki Haley, Trump’s one-on-one challenger after Ron DeSantis threw in the towel, in that role. Indeed, thanks to non-Republicans crossing over to vote in New Hampshire, she may even live for another few weeks until she gets whacked in South Carolina, her home state. But no one believes she has a future, even a desperate media.
US politics, particularly in primary races, unfolds in fairly reliable rhythms. There are surprises in Iowa and then New Hampshire restores calm. Or a predictable conservative win in Iowa, and then a reset in New Hampshire to the middle ground. On the Democratic side, Joe Biden was nowhere in both Iowa and New Hampshire in 2020 until the primary in South Carolina reinvented him. It’s a process of expectations, regional voices, competing organisational strength, and ultimately the winnowing of the field, and often to an unexpected result. It is always a fluid situation. Until now.
