In 'Secrets of a Successful Marriage', the final episode of the fifth season of The Simpsons, Marge kicks Homer out of the house. Homer subsequently takes up residence in Bart's tree house and is reduced to wearing tattered rags. As he thinks of reasons for Marge to take him back, Homer wonders aloud what he can offer her that no one else can. And then he stumbles upon it:
Homer: Complete and utter dependence!
Marge: Homer, that's not a good thing.
Homer: Are you kidding? It's a wondrous, marvellous thing!
This scene also doubles as a metaphor for US-European defence. Europe is deeply reliant on America for its security and the numbers tell us why. In 2021, the US spent $766 billion on defence, more than twice that of all other Nato members combined, according to the Atlantic Council.
For most of the post-World War II period, this suited everyone fine. The US took care of European defence and in return, it got a compliant Europe. There would be occasional grumbles about Nato members failing (sometimes spectacularly) to meet the 2 per cent of GDP on defence target, but there was little appetite to change things.
Indeed, every time a European leader raised the spectre of autonomous European defence, i.e. something other than Nato, it was greeted with a mixture of scepticism and even hostility. Despite the costs to the American taxpayer, the US seemed more comfortable with European dependence, through which it could exercise great influence. Donald Trump has changed the calculation on both sides.
Trump wasn't the first American politician to complain of European free riding (Robert Gates, Defence Secretary to both George W. Bush and Barack Obama, was pretty clear about his frustration with Europe). But Trump broke the consensus that the US would always be there for Europe.
I mention this now because last night, after weeks of political chaos and procedural skulduggery, the US House of Representatives finally elected a new Speaker. Mike Johnson of Louisiana is a Trump ally, who opposes aid to Ukraine and supported the Apprentice star's attempts to overturn the result of the 2020 presidential election. In other words, Johnson is a median elected Republican.
You may be tired of hearing his name but if anything, we don't talk enough about Trump. While he didn't withdraw the US from Nato in his first term, should he win the 2024 presidential election (or refuse to lose it) he might. Even the mere prospect of such a move changes everything. It's not insurance if the company won't pay up when your house is underwater.
A Europe that is able to defend itself, or at least credibly deter its foes, will not come easily. It will require further integration, the ramping up of production capacity and a lot more money. This from a continent that, as Ben Judah writes in today's paper, cannot even agree a unified position on the Israel-Hamas conflict. But the costs of inaction could be incalculable.
That the fight between Homer and Marge took place on a show whose 1990s peak coincided with the unipolar moment – when Washington was the sole superpower and faced no strategic, military or economic threat – is especially pleasing. A reminder of a time when The Simpsons was still funny and the US a dependable ally.
In the comment pages, Robert Fox explains why the expected Israeli ground operation in Gaza has not begun yet. While Prudence Ivey says no-fault evictions negatively impact the whole of society – so why are there more delays?
And finally, is it acceptable to wear wellies in London? Joe Bromley has your guide to staying dry whilst keeping chic (hint: steer clear of all things Countryfile).
