"World goin' one way, people another." — Malik "Poot" Carr, The Wire
Far-right parties have secured their best-ever results in European Parliament elections, making major gains in France, Germany, Austria and Italy. Cumulatively, they are set to win nearly a quarter of the seats in the chamber, up from a fifth last time.
Perhaps the biggest breakthrough came in France, where Marine Le Pen's Rally won 30 of the country's 81 seats, more than double that secured by President Emmanuel Macron's Renew party. Macron promptly called a snap election, with the first round scheduled for June 30.
It is important not to exaggerate these results. The parties of the centre still hold a majority in the new parliament, with the centre-right European People's Party on course for first place, ahead of the Socialists and Democrats in second and the liberal Renew Europe third. Consequently, Ursula von der Leyen is expected to be awarded a second five-year term as Commission President.
Yet the trend is unmistakable. This handy map from Politico Europe shows the rise of far-right and nationalist parties across the continent. The Netherlands looks set to have what has been described as its most right-wing government in history, including the presence of Gert Wilders' Party for Freedom. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s hard-right Brothers of Italy party has been in power since October 2022. Meanwhile, six other EU nations – Finland, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia and the Czech Republic – have hard-right parties in power.
And then there's Brexit Britain which, if the polls are correct, appears hell bent on electing a Labour government with a majority in the low thousands. The main opposition? Don't laugh, but there's a non-zero chance that'll be the Liberal Democrats. It's not just trade in Malaysian palm oil where the UK is diverging from Europe.
Except, I'm not convinced. First, and this is no criticism of Keir Starmer, but the bloke would probably not be on the cusp of power had the governing centre-right party not spectacularly and repeatedly imploded over the last few years (partygate, mini-Budget) while simultaneously overseeing falling living standards.
Second, we have our own burgeoning nationalist right. It is not difficult to imagine a scenario in which the Conservative Party plus Reform UK secure 35 per cent of the vote on July 4. Given the vagaries of first-past-the-post and the sheer antipathy the public feels towards the Tories, that may not garner the right many seats. But under a more European-style, proportional voting system, that coalition would be a highly competitive one.
Indeed, we may already find ourselves in the foothills of such a merger, as the outlines of an impending Conservative leadership election take shape. In one corner, business secretary Kemi Badenoch, hostile to the absorption of Nigel Farage into the party on the not unreasonable grounds that he wants to destroy the party. On the other, former home secretary Suella Braverman, who bagged the front page of The Times today calling on the Tories to embrace the Reform leader.
Starmer and his merry band of soft and centre left comrades are set to form the next government. But the growing volatility within the British electorate, a possible merger (hostile takeover?) on the right and broader anti-immigration trends across Europe suggest that the UK will not remain immune to the rise of far-right politics indefinitely.
