As swathes of southern Europe were ablaze, parts of North Africa approached 50C and Antarctic sea ice fell to record lows, a thought crossed my mind — where have all the climate deniers gone? So many of the things they dismissively said would never come to pass are not only happening, but even sooner than projected.
A few holdouts remain, clinging grimly to the concept of natural fluctuations in temperature or pointing to the odd cold December, but what of the others — have they repented or withdrawn from public life in quiet shame? Of course not. Many had long moved on to pursue other interests, such as falsely comparing Covid-19 with the flu, reassuring voters that a trade deal with the EU would be the easiest in history or predicting that pre-mini-Budget Liz Truss was being dangerously underestimated.
Before we go any further, an important caveat: I am hopeless at anticipating the future. I find myself in a permanent state of mild shock at the result of sporting events and never see the plot twist coming in even the most derivative of thrillers. But the key difference is this (endearing?) character trait precludes me from making grand statements about the future, for fear of being wrong and the ensuing mockery of my peers. Yet the evidence suggests I need not worry — no one seems to keep receipts anymore.
Have they repented or withdrawn from public life in quiet shame? Of course not — many just moved on
Partly this is a reflection of a discouraging set of incentives. There are votes to be won and column inches to be filled by pumping out the hot takes and taking contrarian positions, safe in the knowledge that few ideological bedfellows will call you out, because unity is privileged over accountability. But such thinking is corrosive to the public square.
I understand it to an extent. We make countless predictions and generalisations every day to help us manage the dizzying web of work and human relations. How long will this thing take, how might that person react, what is the correct course of action to a new problem? We do this because we refuse to embrace uncertainty. It’s not so much that we yearn to be right, but that even being wrong is preferable to the discomfort of ambiguity or the awkwardness of having to admit “I don’t know”.
This isn’t a dig at election pollsters, who have to grapple with respondents prepared to pretend they have heard of fictitious cabinet ministers and a first-past-the-post system that delivers wildly different results on the basis of small changes in the vote. Nor is it right to conclude that predictions are never useful. But their utility is contingent on the predictor’s willingness to return to them in the face of new evidence and, if proven wrong, honestly evaluating why that might be. Of course, this is not the typical course of action. Instead, the offender is almost always able to get off scot-free, driving recidivism rates that would see a justice secretary being hauled in front of the Commons for questioning.
None of us is infallible. Nor do I much relish the idea of talking to someone who it turns out is right about everything. But from the habitability of the planet to the football results, we would do well to discount the views of the interminably incorrect.
Moeen, the answer to every question
Few sportspeople are as obsessed with numbers as cricketers. Test batters want centuries and an average over 40, bowlers crave five-fors and an average under 30. Yet where does that leave a player like Moeen Ali, who announced his test retirement for a second time after The Ashes and who for a decade has been a stalwart of the England team despite batting and bowling figures that are, well, pretty average?
As the cricket writer Jarrod Kimber points out, Moeen has been a victim of his own flexibility. He is the answer to every question this England team has faced since 2014. Need a spinner following Graeme Swann’s retirement? Let’s throw the ball to Worcestershire’s number three. Require an opener in the UAE? I have an idea. The guy has batted everywhere from one to nine — to the detriment of his own figures.
Moeen’s numbers do lie, and England will miss him when he’s no longer around to plug every gap in the order.
