America’s permission to Ukraine to fire its potent ATACMS missiles into Russia looks like a last gaps gesture by the dying Joe Biden presidency. Is it too little, too late to save Ukraine from defeat, and the triumph of Vladimir Putin’s forces now advancing on several fronts?
The missiles have been used already, but only against Russian forces in Ukraine itself. Now they are needed to stop the force of over 50,000 now bent on pushing Ukrainian forces out of the pocket of Russian territory they seized round Kursk earlier this summer. Among the 50,000 are up to 10,000 North Koreans – and more expected if the offensive goes on through the winter.
To check the Russian pressure across Ukraine, Britain, France and Italy will be asked to permit the use of their Storm Shadow and Scalp air launched missiles to be used on Russian territory – this time targets will be the logistics bases bordering the Black and Azov Seas. Starmer, Macron and Meloni will have to decide during the G20 summit in Brazil.
Volodymyr Zelensky has said caustically that you don’t plan strategic moves by press statements, and the Ukraine command will choose its moment to use the weapons from the US and its closest allies.
They will have to be used within weeks – by 1st January at the latest, as that marks the beginning of the Trump era and whatever emerges as his peace strategy with Putin. The Russian leader needed victory in Kursk as a platform for declaring victory in order to open negotiations. Zelensky and his closest allies must now throw Putin’s team off balance, militarily and diplomatically.
They have to get as much material support to him as possible, and it needs to patch up some of the gaps in their aid policy so far. The UK, for instance, should consider sending as much kit as possible, including Challenger 2 tanks – which would give them a meaningful role at last. Building an air force should have been a priority – instead the supply of planes, crew training and munitions has been plagued by delaying tactics.
The biggest failure has been in air support including anti-air missiles. Ukraine is still hugely vulnerable to air attacks in the cities and the battlefronts – and Putin has now decided to go all out to wreck civilian life, infrastructure and civilian individuals – with no respect for the norms of humanitarian law and the laws of war.
The outlook for Ukraine now is grim – the new use of the munitions is unlikely to turn the tide against the onslaught of a Russian force of three quarters of a million.
Kyiv faces a difficult and bad peace by the spring. Ukraine reverts to its historic position of the middle ground with few to fight its corner. It’s the Nobby No Mates of European history, the lonely kid in the playground. It’s not that there are no mates at all, but mates now looking to be of little stamina, especially in Berlin, Paris and London.
Robert Fox is defence editor
