"All models," the British statistician George Box observed, "are wrong, but some are useful." To which we now turn to the Office for Budget Responsibility, whose Brexit forecasts seem to be holding up remarkably well.
Hidden within its 168-page report following the Budget, the fiscal watchdog noted that its long-term assumptions about the negative impact of Brexit on the UK economy appear to be "broadly on track". That is, a 15 per cent drop in trade intensity and a 4 per cent decline in potential productivity compared to if Britain had remained in the European Union.
