As they always said would happen, the polls began to narrow. Keir Starmer came unstuck on questions around taxation. The Rwanda scheme was finally up and running by late May. The Bank of England cut interest rates in mid-June. Nigel Farage decided to stay out of the campaign. And the prime minister, against all the odds, secured a fifth Conservative term.
Yeah, no. Instead, today's top story is that another (in fact, two more) Conservatives are being looked into by the Gambling Commission for allegedly placing bets on the date of the general election. If this was on your bingo card, be careful – the authorities may be onto you as well.
It all began a week ago when The Guardian reported that Craig Williams, standing for re-election in Montgomeryshire and Glyndŵr, had apologised for placing a £100 bet on a July election – three days prior to Sunak's soggy announcement in Downing Street. Williams is no household name, but he is the prime minister's parliamentary private secretary – in journalese, his 'eyes and ears' in the Commons.
And now, a second Tory candidate – Laura Sanders, standing in Bristol North West – is being looked into alongside her husband, Tony Lee, who also happens to be Conservative Party director of campaigns. Lee has taken a leave of absence, while Sanders and Williams remain officially endorsed by CCHQ.
Additionally, the Metropolitan Police have arrested and suspended an officer serving in the prime minister's personal security unit, after he too allegedly bet on the timing of the election.
It doesn't require great powers of analysis to see why this might be bad for the Tories. I mean, some people close to the prime minister stand accused of using inside information to profit off the date of the election. This is worse than Sunak's D-Day retreat, which was merely a comment on his political judgement rather than a question of his character and probity.
It is also bad for politics. The 'MPs are only in it for themselves' brigade will get another chance to say 'I told you so'. And while it's still not true, it may sound a little more persuasive than before. If you forgive me a brief flash of earnestness: politics isn't a game. Decisions made in Westminster directly impact people's lives. Don't make me quote Robert Caro on power again, it was cringey enough the first time.
The point of calling a snap election is to catch your opponents off guard. Following the repeal of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, this was one of the few cards Sunak had left to play. Yet instead taking advantage of this prerogative power, by getting ahead on candidate selection, fundraising and so on, close confidents of the prime minister were allegedly on the proverbial phone to literal bookmakers.
I don't know about you, but I'm starting to think the Tories aren't going to win this election.
