When you ask NFL coaches, executives, and scouts about analytics, you’ll get all kinds of answers which tend to reveal which teams value them — and which teams are paying lip service, because they don’t really consider advanced metrics, but they don’t want to be pilloried on social media as dinosaurs.
The teams that don’t value analytics, or don’t want you to know that they do, will tend to give more generic answers. Teams that are all in will be more specific.
Whether you believe that analytics can help your player evaluation process or not, the simple fact is that they represent a tool that can be helpful in the right hands. In the wrong hands, it’s just statistical noise.
We’re not sure if my hands are the right ones or not, but in this article, I have endeavored to find one specific metric for each NFL team that reveals a larger strength or weakness each team will either benefit from, or must address, in the 2022 season.
So, get your tape-repaired glasses, dust off your pocket protectors, and let’s nerd out with one stat that matters for every NFL team!
(All advanced metrics courtesy of Sports Info Solutions, Pro Football Focus, and Football Outsiders unless otherwise indicated).
Arizona Cardinals: 31%
Kliff Kingsbury is getting ready for his fourth season as the Cardinals’ head coach and offensive shot-caller, and with a few variations, we tend to know what we’re going to get from Kingsbury’s playbook. There will be a heavy dose of 10 personnel (four receivers, one running back, no tight ends), which goes back to Kingsbury’s Air Raid college days. Arizona led the NFL with 14% of their offensive snaps in 10 personnel last season. There will also be a lot of play-action and RPO concepts. Kingsbury mixes up his run game concepts between gap and zone, and he’ll call running plays in light-box situations at the highest rate in the league.
What Kingsbury seems dead set against is pre-snap motion — even when it’s drastically helped his offense every season he’s been the Cardinals’ head coach. In 2021, Arizona used pre-snap motion on 31% of their snaps, which ranked 29th in the league. But when they did use motion, the Cardinals ranked fifth in Sports Info Solutions’ Positive Play Rate metric at 48%.
This is not a one-year thing. In 2020, Arizona used motion on 29% of its snaps (dead last in the NFL), and ranked 11th in Positive Play Rate. In 2019, Kingsbury’s first season, his team ranked 27th in motion rate (31%) and ranked third in Positive Play Rate with it.
Without pre-snap motion last season, Kyler Murray completed 230 of 340 passes for 2,659 yards, 1,493 air yards, 17 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. With motion, he completed 122 of 175 passes for 1,265 yards, 478 air yards, seven touchdowns, and three interceptions.
With all the talk about what homework Murray is or isn’t doing, this is something Kingsbury might want to study.
Atlanta Falcons: 184
There is an increasing belief that quarterback pressures are nearly as important — or just as important — as sacks. Then, there’s the Atlanta Falcons, who had a whole lot of neither in 2021. Atlanta’s defense ranked dead last in the league in solo sacks (16.0), combined sacks (17.0), quarterback hurries (117), and total pressures (184). The Lions ranked second-worst with 201 total pressures, so this wasn’t particularly close. This was a primary reason that Atlanta ranked 29th in Defensive DVOA overall, and 29th against the pass.
Interior defensive lineman Grady Jarrett led all Falcons with 36 pressures, and edge defender Dante Fowler Jr. came in second with 30. After that, a big dropoff.
There was some action in the draft to take care of this deficit, as Atlanta selected Penn State edge-rusher Arnold Ebiketie in the second round, and Western Kentucky’s DeAngelo Malone in the third. Ebiketie had eight sacks and 52 total pressures last season, while Malone put up seven sacks and 38 pressures. If the rookies are able to come anywhere near that production at the NFL level, it will of course be a major boost for a defense in desperate need.
Baltimore Ravens: -67.5%
Where Lamar Jackson ranks in the Quarterback Pantheon has been a hot topic of late. There are reasons for Jackson’s regression in 2021 — some were his fault, and some were not. One thing that really showed up last season was the extent to which Jackson fell apart as a passer when he was blitzed — and he was blitzed a lot. No starting quarterback faced blitzes at a higher rate than Jackson’s 33%. He was good for 7.6 yards per play and a 35.5% DVOA with four pass-rushers.
That dropped to 5.7 yards per play and a -21.9% DVOA against five pass-rushers, and 3.2 yards per play with a -67.5% DVOA against six or more. Jackson was worse against the blitz than he was against four pass-rushers in 2019 and 2020, per the Football Outsiders Almanac, but not anywhere near this schism.
In 2022 and beyond, Jackson and Baltimore’s offensive staff will have to figure out concepts that allow him to thrive against multiple pass-rushers. Because the NFL is, above all else, a copycat league.
Buffalo Bills: 30.9%
It’s great to be explosive on both offense and defense to the point where you can just embarrass your opponents, but it might be better to be slightly less explosive in favor of more consistency. This applies to the Bills, who had the highest week-to-week variance in team DVOA (Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted play-to-play efficiency metric) at 30.9%. For every game in which the Bills looked unbeatable last season, there was another in which they just got turnt up.
The wild-card win over the Patriots, in which the Bills scored seven touchdowns on seven drives, gave them the best single-game Offensive DVOA in any playoff game in the 20-year history of the metric at 108.1%. But they also had a -76.7 Offensive DVOA against the Jaguars (!), and a -21.6 Offensive DVOA against the Colts in Week 11. In Week 6 against the Titans, Buffalo had a Defensive DVOA of 34.9%, and in Week 11 against the Colts, it was 32.4%. Defensive DVOA is better when it’s negative and worse when it’s positive, and those numbers are really bad.
The Bills are on most short lists when it comes to Super Bowl predictions, and for good reason. Perhaps taking the game-to-game variance down a bit is the thing that can push them over the top.
Carolina Panthers: 103.2
Right now, the Panthers have an undefined situation at the game’s most important position. Sam Darnold is the established starting quarterback, such as he is. Baker Mayfield, traded from the Browns, is the challenger. Matt Corral, selected in the third round out of Ole Miss, is the rookie upstart.
Mayfield has the most shown talent of the three to this point, and if the Panthers want to get the most out of Mayfield, head coach Matt Rhule and his staff should endeavor to utilize a certain personnel package at a fairly high rate.
In 2020, Mayfield’s 289 dropbacks with 11 personnel (three receivers, one tight end, one running back) ranked 24th in the league. And when given the benefit of 11 personnel, Mayfield completed 176 of 267 passes for 1,960 yards, 1,258 air yards, 20 touchdowns, and six interceptions. His ANY/A of 7.4 out of 11 personnel ranked sixth in the league, tied with Patrick Mahomes. His passer rating of 103.2 with 11 personnel ranked seventh in the NFL. His EPA of 47.66 ranked sixth in the NFL, and his Positive Play Rate of 50.0% ranked 10th. In 2021, when Mayfield was affected by multiple injuries and regressed as a result, he was still better in 11 personnel than the 12 and 13 personnel packages preferred by Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski.
Last season, the Panthers ran 11 personnel on 419 of their dropbacks, which ranked 20th in the league, Darnold wasn’t exactly great in it — he completed 184 of 302 passes for 1,836 yards, 812 air yards, six touchdowns, and 11 interceptions — so maybe the plan for Rhule should be to get Mayfield in the fold with the stuff that works best for him. What else is he gonna be able to do?
Chicago Bears: 11
There are teams that are great when defending against deep passes, and then, there are the Chicago Bears, who were decidedly not that in 2021. Against passes of 20 or more air yards, Chicago’s defense allowed 26 catches on 56 targets for 933 yards, a league-high 11 touchdowns, no interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 132.4. Chicago’s Defensive DVOA of 69.3% was also the NFL’s worst.
Perhaps this is one reason the Bears hired former Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus to be their new head coach? Last season, Indianapolis’ defense tied for third-best in the league with four deep interceptions (the Buccaneers and Cowboys tied for the league lead with six), and the Colts only allowed four deep touchdowns. Eberflus is generally big on two-high safety looks, and last season, the Colts allowed no deep touchdowns and picked off two deep passes when using two deep safeties. Meanwhile, the Bears allowed five of their deep touchdowns in such packages. Oof.
Safety was a big problem on these plays for the Bears last season — both Marqui Christian and Eddie Jackson allowed two deep touchdowns — and Jackson — who has allowed seven touchdowns to no interceptions overall in his last two seasons — is projected as a free safety for 2022. Perhaps the addition of Penn State’s Jaquan Brisker, selected with the 48th overall pick in the second round, will help. Brisker is projected by many as a box safety, but he’s perfectly capable of covering half the field deep.
Cincinnati Bengals: 92.7
Last season, Joe Burrow faced a lot of defensive pressure. That’s not exactly breaking news, as Burrow was doing his thing behind a really bad pass-protecting offensive line, and even the casual viewer could see that Burrow was running for his life a lot of the time. Fortunately for the Bengals, Burrow in his second NFL season was as good against pressure as any NFL quarterback. Burrow was pressured on 260 of his 759 dropbacks (34.3%), and on those 260 dropbacks, he completed 104 of 175 passes for 1,446 yards, 11 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a league-best passer rating of 92.7.
In the 2022 offseason, Cincinnati did a lot to address that line, signing three free agents (La’el Collins, Ted Karras, and Alex Cappa) as reinforcements. All three project as serious improvements at their positions, which bodes well for Burrow’s future. Because when he wasn’t pressured in 2021, Burrow completed 359 of 487 passes for 4,270 yards, 28 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and a passer rating of 110.7 — fourth-best in the NFL.
A better line could allow Burrow to use deeper drops and more expansive route concepts, as well as an uptick in play-action. In 2021, the Bengals used play-action on just 14% of their passing snaps, and Burrow threw eight touchdowns to seven interceptions when using it. Cincinnati also ranked first in the league in short dropbacks — they did so on 74% of their passing snaps. Still, Burrow was able to attempt 80 passes of 20 or more air yards, completing 37 for 1,139 yards, 14 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a 96.9 passer rating. Imagine what he could do without having to clear out of disaster all the time.
Improved protection might give us a Bengals passing game with several new effective wrinkles.
Cleveland Browns: 70
To say that Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski enjoys drawing up passing plays out of 13 personnel — three tight ends, one running back, and one receiver — is to severely understate the point. Last season, Cleveland had 70 dropbacks out of 13; the Bears ranked second with 35. We’ve already discussed how that wasn’t already great for Baker Mayfield, but how will it work for whoever the hell will play quarterback for the Browns in 2022?
Deshaun Watson is out for at least the first six games, and that may expand with the NFL’s appeal of Watson’s recent suspension. But let’s say Watson does play this season. We have to go back to 2020 for his metrics. Back then, Watson attempted just two passes out of 13 personnel, completing one for a two-yard touchdown. So, fooling a defense expecting something different out of heavy personnel, which is a foundational construct when you’re passing out of 13.
As for backup/starter Jacoby Brissett: Last season with the Dolphins, he completed two of six passes out of 13 personnel for 46 yards, 44 air yards, no touchdowns, and no interceptions. So, not a huge sample size.
Stefanski has recently said that he will tailor his offense to what Watson likes (this was obviously before Watson’s suspension), and one hopes it’s also true for Brissett. It wasn’t always so for Mayfield.
Dallas Cowboys: 1%
We know that the NFL has strayed far away from the base defense as the base archetype over the last decade. The increasing number of empty and 3×1 sets have forced defensive coordinators to make nickel the base defense, and that’s been true for a while now. Last season, per Football Outsiders, NFL defenses played with five defensive backs on 61.4% of their snaps, with six defensive backs (dime) on 13.9% of their snaps, and with four defensive backs (base) on 23.4% of their snaps.
While there are a few old-school holdouts — the Seahawks played base on 38% of their snaps, and the Steelers, Dolphins, and Vikings did so on 34% of theirs — there are far more defenses abandoning base altogether in favor of more expansive coverage ideas. In 2021, the Bills led the NFL with 92% nickel, followed by the Cowboys and Colts at 78%, the Falcons at 74%, and the Eagles and Jets at 73%. Miami led the NFL in percentage of dime defense at 31%, followed by the Chiefs at 28%, the Titans and Rams at 26%, the Saints at 25%, and the Packers at 24%.
No team has thrown the idea of base defense out more than the Cowboys, who lined up in base on just 1% of their defensive snaps in 2021. One reason for that might be that when they did, they were really bad at it. Dallas allowed 8.4 yards per play and a Defensive DVOA of 75.5% in base. As Defensive DVOA is better when it’s negative and worse when it’s positive, that tells you how far off the baseline their defense was in that regard.
Last season, with Dan Quinn as their new defensive coordinator, the Cowboys ranked second overall in Defensive DVOA, behind only the Bills. They were great in nickel (a -12.36 DVOA) and fantastic in dime (a -38.6 DVOA), so it was smart of Quinn and his staff to go with that which works best.
Last season, there were seven teams (the Cowboys, Bills, Patriots, Saints, Commanders, Packers, and Rams) playing less than 20% base, while six teams (the Seahawks, Dolphins, Steelers, Vikings, Jaguars, and Texans) did it more than 30% of the time. As seasons progress, our guess is that you’ll see more teams adding their names to the first part of that ledger, and running away from the second.
Denver Broncos: 115.5
We don’t yet know how the Broncos’ offense will look with Russell Wilson on the field and new head coach Nathaniel Hackett in charge, but here’s one thing we would suggest: More pre-snap motion. The Seahawks didn’t use it a lot when Wilson dropped back to pass, and that was a mistake. In 2021, Wilson’s 109 passing attempts with pre-snap motion ranked 29th in the NFL, but when given the benefit of it, he completed 76 of 109 passes for 1,006 yards, 454 air yards, eight touchdowns, two interceptions, and a league-best passer rating of 115.5.
It was obvious that motion gave Wilson a clearer pre-snap picture and allowed him to take advantage of isolated matchups, so perhaps this was another example of the philosophical divide between player and team.
In any event, Hackett — who spent the last three seasons as the Packers’ offensive coordinator — has a positive experience with the concept. Last season with pre-snap motion, Aaron Rodgers completed 176 of 256 passes for 1,717 yards, 626 air yards, 21 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 111.4 — fourth-best in the league behind Wilson, Dak Prescott, and Teddy Bridgewater, one of Wilson’s predecessors in Denver. Rodgers’ 290 dropbacks with motion ranked eighth in the league; Patrick Mahomes ranked first by far with 561.
If you’ve ever wondered what Russell Wilson could do in an offense that was specifically tailored to his strengths, you might be on the verge of finding out.
Detroit Lions: 55
The Lions are trying to put a full roster together after years of attrition and neglect, and one of the more surprising players in that process was receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, selected in the fourth round of the 2021 draft out of USC. St. Brown’s brother Equanimeous was taken by the Packers in the sixth round of the 2018 draft, so there’s some NFC North history in the family. But with all due respect, Equanimeous never had a second half of an NFL season like his little brother did in 2021.
The younger St. Brown’s professional career started off slowly — in Weeks 1-11, he caught 35 passes on 47 targets for 329 yards and no touchdowns. Not bad for a rookie in an offense still learning its way.
Then, from Week 12 through Week 18, St. Brown absolutely exploded onto the scene. In that space of time, he caught 55 passes on 68 targets for 583 yards and five touchdowns. Only Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, Diontae Johnson, and Stefon Diggs had more targets, only Kupp had more receptions, only Kupp, Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins had more receiving yards, and only Davante Adams and Kupp had more receiving touchdowns.
And none of those guys did what St. Brown did — he broke up what would have been a Jared Goff interception against the Vikings in Week 12, and then caught the game-winning touchdown to ensure Detroit’s first victory of the season.
St. Brown saved his best for last, as he caught 16 passes on 21 targets for 220 yards and two touchdowns in the Lions’ final two games against the Seahawks and Packers. All bodes well for St. Brown to jump from his status as one of the more productive rookie receivers last season to a standout target regardless of status in 2022.
Green Bay Packers: -0.01
The Packers come into the 2022 season with Aaron “Magic Mushroom” Rodgers, a dynamite two-pronged rushing attack with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, an offensive line that has still been strong despite David Bakhtiari’s ongoing injury status, and a defense that might be stacked enough to be the lead dog on a trip to the Super Bowl.
What the Packers do not have anymore is the NFL’s best receiver. They forfeited that claim when they traded Davante Adams to the Raiders in March. And this may be a bigger problem for Rodgers and the rest of the team than anybody in the building wants to let on. Last season, Adams was the overwhelming target favorite with 177 of Rodgers’ attempts headed his way. Adams caught 132 of those passes for 1,643 yards and 11 touchdowns.
But it’s not just the sheer numbers; it’s also the Packers’ current receiver depth (pedestrian to good), and what happened to Green Bay’s offense when Adams wasn’t on the field. He missed the Packers’ Week 8 win over the Cardinals because he couldn’t pass the league’s COVID Protocols, and he played just 22 snaps in the regular-season finale against the Lions as the team was resting starters for the postseason.
When Adams was off the field — and this was just 164 snaps in 2021 — the following things transpired, per Sports Info Solutions:
Offensive EPA dropped from 0.11 to -0.01.
Passing EPA dropped from 0.16 to 0.01.
Completion percentage dropped from 68.7 to 64.3.
Average depth of target dropped from 7.7 yards to 5.8.
Yards per attempt dropped from 7.9 to 6.2.
Touchdown percentage dropped from 7.0 to 2.9.
Catch rate dropped from 71.3 to 64.3.
Yards per target dropped from 8.2 to 6.2.
Yes, Jordan Love played a lot of that Detroit game as well, which didn’t help. But if the Packers think they can just move past having Adams on the roster without a serious hit to their offense, they could be in for a rude awakening.
Houston Texans: 51.4
In the interests of improving a secondary in need, the Texans selected LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. with the third overall pick in the 2022 draft. And if they get the guy who in 2019 allowed 34 catches on 92 targets for 608 yards, 200 yards after the catch, five touchdowns, six interceptions, 15 pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 51.4? That version of Stingley looked like a top-five pick, and he did it as the first true freshman to start on LSU’s defense in 34 years.
But over the next two seasons, injuries affected Stingley’s play, and that showed up both on tape and in the metrics. In 2020, he allowed 13 catches on 29 targets for 158 yards, 49 yards after the catch, one touchdown, no interceptions, five pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 73.6. Last season, he allowed two receptions on four targets for 36 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, no pass breakups, and an opponent passer rating of 128.1.
Stingley is back from the Lisfranc foot injury that cost him most of the 2021 season, and the Texans are ramping him up in training camp. Hopefully, this is the Stingley we see in the NFL.
Don't try a fade route in the endzone on Derek Stingley.
You've been warned. pic.twitter.com/Xur2Ighv5x
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) August 3, 2022
Indianapolis Colts: 147
The Colts are about to display a massive change in defensive philosophy. Under former defensive coordinator and new Bears head coach Matt Eberflus, few teams played more two-deep safety looks — only the Packers and Seahawks had more snaps in Cover-2, 2-Man, Cover-4, and Cover-6 than did the Colts; their 241 such snaps tied with the Saints.
New defensive coordinator Gus Bradley has been a Cover-3 guy through his stints with the Seahawks, Jaguars, Chargers, and Raiders. Last season in Las Vegas, Bradley called Cover-3 against a league-high 291 times (the Buccaneers ranked second at 241), and under Eberflus in 2021, the Colts played Cover-3 against 147 attempts, which ranked 19th. They allowed 96 catches on those 147 attempts for 1,171 yards, eight touchdowns, six interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 90.8, which was about in the middle of the pack.
It’s an interesting potential construct as most of the NFL is flipping to two-deep as quickly as it possibly can. The guy to watch in this scenario is slot defender Kenny Moore II, one of the best in the league at his position. When playing Cover-3 last season, Moore allowed 10 completions on 14 attempts for 105 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 86.9. Slot guys tend to give up a higher rate of completions because they’re defending a lot of quick game, but Moore could be the team leader in that transition.
Jacksonville Jaguars: -35.7%
Trevor Lawrence’s rookie season was torpedoed by bad coaching, a regressive passing game, and a roster very much under construction. So, it’s tough to know exactly how good he can be at the NFL level until we see how he does in a new offense led by new head coach Doug Pederson. One thing we know about Lawrence, based on that rookie year, is that the more pass-rushers you threw at him, the worse things got.
From the Football Outsiders Almanac:
Trevor Lawrence got worse the more pass-rushers he faced in his rookie season. When Lawrence faced three pass-rushers, the Jaguars had 6.8 yards per play and 16.6% DVOA. With four pass-rushers, those numbers became 6.1 and -4.7% DVOA. Against a blitz of five or more pass-rushers, the Jaguars had 3.9 yards per play and -35.7% DVOA.
In addition… while all NFL quarterbacks put up inferior numbers against two-deep coverage as opposed to single-high stuff (hey, there’s one more guy deep), nobody had more issues against two-deep than Lawrence did — against Cover-2, 2-Man, Cover-4, and Cover-6, he completed 113 of 196 passes for 1,310 yards, 830 air yards, two touchdowns, a league-high 10 interceptions, and a passer rating of 60.1.
Lawrence may still prove to be the generational talent a lot of people thought he would be from his college days, but there’s a lot to get past here.
Kansas City Chiefs: 9
There are those who will tell you that Patrick Mahomes regressed a bit in 2021, which is to say that he went from thermonuclear to just nuclear. He still completed 525 passes in 780 attempts for 5,896 yards, 48 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions. Mahomes finished fourth in Football Outsiders’ DYAR metric in 2021 after finishing first in 2020 — so again, when we talk about a backslide, there are degrees to that. Nobody credible is going to say that Mahomes has fallen off any sort of cliff.
But if there’s one area of concern, it’s how Mahomes really did regress against two-deep coverages. In 2020, against Cover-2, 2-Man, Cover-4, and Cover-6, Mahomes completed 208 of 318 passes for 2,519 yards, 1,528 air yards, 14 touchdowns, four interceptions, and a Positive Play Rate of 52.4%. In 2021, he completed 215 of 332 passes against two-deep looks for 2,532 yards, 1,401 air yards, nine touchdowns, nine interceptions, and a Positive Play Rate of 50.3%. Only Trevor Lawrence had more interceptions against two-deep coverage last season, and given the disaster Lawrence had to work with, we’re inclined to say that it doesn’t count.
Last season, the Chiefs’ base run game wasn’t effective enough to make defenses pay for leaving that second safety out of the box, and if that doesn’t change in 2022, we may see similar numbers from Kansas City’s franchise quarterback.
Las Vegas Raiders: 103.6
With offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, and through the Tom Brady, Cam Newton, and Mac Jones eras, the Patriots have liked to give their quarterbacks the benefit of pre-snap motion. In his rookie season, Jones ranked fourth in the NRL behind Patrick Mahomes, Brady, and Jimmy Garoppolo with 331 dropbacks that featured some kind of motion.
Now that McDaniels is the Raiders’ head coach, Derek Carr should expect a serious uptick in this regard. In 2021, Carr had just 184 dropbacks with pre-snap motion, completing 132 of 173 passes for 1,377 yards, 545 air yards, five touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 103.6, 10th-best in the NFL. Without motion, Carr completed 296 of 435 passes for 3,427 yards, 1,863 yards, 18 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and a passer rating of 90.3, which ranked 14th.
The addition of Davante Adams is the most obvious benefit to Carr’s future, but don’t underestimate what he’ll be able to do with more movement before the ball is snapped.
Los Angeles Chargers: 149
The Chargers seem to have all the parts for playoff success. They have an amazing young quarterback in Justin Herbert. Running back Austin Ekeler is one of the most underrated players at his position. The receiver group is potentially explosive, there have been needed tweaks to an offensive line that improved exponentially last season with the additions of left tackle Rashawn Slater and center Corey Linsley, and the defense — created by head coach Brandon Staley — can make things complicated for enemy quarterbacks.
What stands in the way, beyond the bloodbath that is the AFC West this season? The Chargers’ run defense, which was really, really, REALLY bad in 2021. We need look no further than L.A.’s Week 15 win over the Texans, in which journeyman back Rex Burkhead — who gained a total of 427 yards and scored three touchdowns on 122 carries last season — put up 149 of those yards and two of those touchdowns on 22 carries against that leaky defense. When you give up 149 rushing yards to Rex Freaking Burkhead, that is a defining statistic. Run defense literally kept this team out of the postseason, as Raiders back Josh Jacobs blew it up for 132 yards and a touchdown on 26 carries in the Week 18 all-in game to decide which team would make the postseason. The Chargers allowed 174 rushing yards and 190 passing yards in that game, which neatly encapsulates a season-long struggle.
It’s important to remember that Staley had Aaron Donald with that other Los Angeles team when he was their defensive coordinator, which makes those light-box ideas far easier to successfully execute. Last season, the Chargers went with a light box on 56% of their defensive snaps (13th-most in the NFL), and they ranked 31st in Positive Play Rate allowed when they did so.
The trade for end Khalil Mack should help, as Mack is still a plus run defender off the edge. DI Sebastian Joseph-Day, who played under Staley with the Rams, is a decent reinforcement with 85 stops over three seasons. The Chargers also took UCLA run-stopper Otito Ogbonnia in the fifth round, but at this point, there isn’t that tentpole guy who forces double-teams through the interior. Which means that Staley’s crew will have to get it done with the collective.
If that doesn’t happen, for all the talent on this roster, the Chargers could be on the outside looking in again.
Los Angeles Rams: 17
When the Rams traded for Matthew Stafford, the reasons were obvious. Sean McVay was tired of throwing up game plans for such a limited quarterback as Jared Goff, and as much as Stafford had traded water with the Lions, there was more than enough physical talent on the tape to make it clear that Stafford had every attribute to weaponize McVay’s ideal offense.
The result was the Rams’ second Super Bowl win in franchise history, and Stafford taking his place as the face of that offense. More specifically, Stafford became the one quarterback in the NFL who might as well have worn a jersey with the following message:
“DO NOT BLITZ UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES.”
When defenses blitzed Stafford last season, he made them pay as no other quarterback could. Against five or more pass-rushers in that Super Bowl season, Stafford completed 112 of 151 passes for 1,398 yards, 724 air yards, 17 touchdowns, no interceptions, and a Positive Play Rate of 62.9% — by far the most among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts against the blitz. (Patrick Mahomes finished second at 58.2%).
Was this the result of a perfect marriage between player and team? Perhaps. In 2020, his final season with Detroit, Stafford completed 93 of 148 attempts against five or more pass-rushers for 977 yards, 439 air yards, six touchdowns, four interceptions, and a Positive Play Rate of 42.6% — good for 17th among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts against the blitz.
Sometimes, you just need to find the right home.
Miami Dolphins: 29
Can Tua Tagovailoa become a true franchise quarterback in his third NFL season? A lot is riding on that question for a franchise that has had its share of embarrassments of late. When it’s time to play football, as opposed to all the nonsense involving team owner Stephen Ross, that question will be more pronounced. There will be the matter of picking up the fifth-year option for the 2020 fifth-overall pick, and if Tagovailoa wants to make that automatic, he’ll have to sharpen things up. Above all, he’ll need to become a more prolific deep thrower.
Last season, among quarterbacks who took at least 25% of their teams’ offensive snaps, nobody had fewer deep attempts than Tagovailoa’s 26. He completed 14 of those deep passes for 526 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 77.2. To put that in context, Tom Brady led the league in 2021 with 88 deep attempts.
Trading for Tyreek Hill would lead to the assumption that there will be more deep balls in the plan this season, and new offensive coordinator Frank Smith has said as much. Miami’s “RPO in a can” offense didn’t really help last season, and now, it’s time for Tagovailoa to stand or fall on his own merits in that regard.
Minnesota Vikings: 120.7
Nobody thinks of Kirk Cousins as a top-tier quarterback — except for the Vikings, who keep giving him large, fully guaranteed contracts. One way in which Cousins actually was among the NFL’s best quarterbacks in 2021 was when it was time to throw deep. On throws of 20 or more air yards last season, Cousins completed 33 of 71 for 1,041 yards, 10 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a league-best passer rating of 120.7.
Who had the NFL's highest passer rating on throws of 20 or more air yards last season?
This guy. #YouLikeThat
Having Justin Jefferson helps, of course. pic.twitter.com/hWju8M0Kqq
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) August 6, 2022
This would seem to go against the canard that Cousins doesn’t have a good deep arm — in truth, he has developed that. Yes, he has a great receiver group, led by the near-peerless Jefferson, but Cousins made some great deep throws in 2021. More than you may have expected.
New England Patriots: 14
While most of the talk this offseason regarding the Patriots has been about who’s going to call the offensive plays — Bill Belichick, Joe Judge, or Matt Patricia — New England’s defense is an uncharacteristically disconcerting story right now. The primary reason for that is a secondary that has been on lock for a while now. Belichick has had some “interesting” defenses in the last few seasons — the Patriots ranked 26th in Defensive DVOA in 2020, and 31st in 2017 — but it’s been a while since we’ve seen a Belichick defense this cornerback-light.
The primary reason for this, of course, is the five-year, $82.5 million contract cornerback J.C. Jackson signed with the Los Angeles Chargers in March. Jackson, an undrafted free agent out of Maryland that the Patriots found, has been one of the best at his position in the league, displaying unreal consistency at a position that does not generally engender year-to-year excellence. Jackson has never allowed an opponent passer rating higher than 62.7 in a season in his career, and since 2018, nobody has more interceptions than Jackson’s 25.
What does that leave for the Patriots? Well, they have a dominant safety group, led by the criminally underrated Devin McCourty, but Belichick and his defensive staff will be burning some midnight oil to get that group up to an elite level. Jonathan Jones was the only cornerback on the roster last season besides Jackson to allow an opponent passer rating lower than 100 (89.4). Malcolm Butler’s homecoming comes after he took the year away from the game in 2021, though he played well for the Titans in 2020. Jalen Mills, who was supposed to provide some hope for the future, allowed six touchdowns and had no interceptions last season. In fact, the 2021 Patriots cornerbacks not named J.C. Jackson allowed 14 touchdowns, and had just two interceptions.
Perhaps this explains Steve Belichick’s sideline facial expressions.
Steve Belichick after he saw Ace Ventura for the first time pic.twitter.com/vPtzOyMzlS
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) October 4, 2021
New Orleans Saints: 131.4
Nobody questions the championship caliber of a Saints defense that ranked third in DVOA last season, second in 2020, and is projected by Football Outsiders to be the NFL’s best in 2022. Defense is not what kept the Saints out of the playoffs for the first time since 2016. It was the offense, and specifically a passing game left adrift after Drew Brees’ retirement. New Orleans tried to bridge the gap by signing Jameis Winston to be Brees’ backup in 2020, and they doubled down on Winston this year with a new two-year, $28 million contract with $21 million guaranteed. This after losing the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes, which falls into the “Be careful what you wish for” category.
Anyway, one of the reasons the Saints decided to stick with Winston is that before he suffered a torn ACL in Week 8 of the 2021 season, he was playing at a different level than he had with the Buccaneers over five seasons. The same guy who set an NFL record in 2019 with the only 30-touchdown/30-interception season ever, threw 14 touchdowns and just three picks in 2021.
Winston was especially effective with play-action — in fact, he was the NFL’s best starting quarterback with it last season. He completed 28 of 42 such passes for 424 yards, 202 air yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions, and a league-best passer rating of 131.4. And that newfound caution did not come at the expense of shot plays — Winston completed two of six passes of 20 or more air yards with play-action for 113 yards, 102 air yards, and a touchdown.
Winston was also great with pre-snap motion, completing 30 of 50 passes for 372 yards, 106 air yards, four touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 101.4.
Winston is on track to start Week 1 of the regular season for the Saints, and it will be fascinating to see where he can take that offense through a full campaign, and with a more refined philosophy, if he stays healthy.
New York Giants: -10.6%
When the Giants selected Duke quarterback Daniel Jones with the sixth overall pick in the 2019 draft, based primarily on former general manager Dave Gettleman’s impressions of Jones at the Senior Bowl, it appeared to be still another of Gettleman’s epic reaches. Jones looked very much like a mid-round talent, but hey — nobody’s going to talk Gettleman out of anything.
Through his first three NFL seasons, Jones has done far more to validate the doubters than he has to prove them wrong. His Passing DVOA of -10.6 in 2021 ranked 26th in the league, and that’s the best DVOA he’s posted in a season. There was his -22.4% DVOA in 2020, which ranked 32nd, and his -19.2% DVOA in 2019, which ranked 30th.
The Giants did not pick up Jones’ fifth-year option, and if Jones can’t get things going with new head coach and offensive shot-caller Brian Daboll, it’s safe to say that the team will be more than willing to move on.
Sadly, history is not on Jones’ side. Per Football Outsiders, there have been four quarterbacks who posted Passing DVOA of at least -10.0% in their first three NFL seasons. DVOA currently goes back to 1982, so there’s a pretty decent sample size. Jeff George (1990-1992), Rick Mirer (1993-1995), Tim Couch (1999-2001), and Sam Darnold (2018-2020). Only George was able to redeem himself later in his career. Darnold, like Jones, is trying to buck the “bust” label, and it’s not going well.
Daniel Jones’ career crossroad comes now, and the odds are… iffy.
New York Jets: 105.2
105.2 is the opponent passer rating the Jets’ defense allowed last season, worst in the NFL. It was one of many metrics pointing to the general ineffectiveness of their secondary. Gang Green also had the league’s fewest interceptions (five), allowed the third-most passing yards (4,711, behind the Ravens and Seahawks), gave up the highest yards per catch rate (8.1, tied with the Ravens, who had an historic level of injuries last season), and only the Eagles and Jaguars allowed a higher completion percentage than the Jets’ 68.5% (tied with the 49ers).
To their credit, general manager Joe Douglas, head coach Robert Saleh, and their staffs did everything possible to turn this around. They took Cincinnati’s Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, the best cornerback in this draft class, with the fourth overall pick. In free agency, they landed underrated former Seahawks cornerback D.J. Reed and ex-Buccaneers safety Jordan Whitehead, and both players are set to help as playmakers and shot-callers.
As expected, Sauce is already swagging out there.
Sauce Gardner has more twitch than I thought.
— Cory Yates (@CoryRAanalytics) July 30, 2022
Given the new blood, and Saleh’s history of putting great defenses on the field, expect a serious uptick from this unit. Because, to be honest, there’s nowhere to go but up.
Philadelphia Eagles: 649
Remember all that stuff about the disappearance of base defense we discussed when we were talking about the Cowboys? Well, there’s more to unpack here. No matter what defense you preferred to run in 2021, you were NOT going to run base defenses against 11 personnel — three receivers, one running back, and one tight end. Defenses ran base on just 2.8% of their snaps against 11 personnel, and it’s easy to discern why — the math isn’t in your favor. Three receivers against three linebackers means that someone is likely to be left behind in coverage.
Enterprising offenses should like to run the ball out of 11 personnel to counter the fact that defenses played nickel 77.3% of the time and dime 19.9% of the time against 11 personnel. The Bengals, who ran as much 11 last season as anybody, were the clubhouse leaders in this regard with Joe Mixon, their top running back. Mixon led the league with 232 attempts, 926 yards, 575 yards after contact, and 11 rushing touchdowns out of 11. After Mixon, you’ll see other running backs — Najee Harris, Jonathan Taylor, and Antonio Gibson.
You’ll also see two quarterbacks in the top six rushing yardage leaders out of 11 — Buffalo’s Josh Allen (no surprise there), and Jalen Hurts of the Eagles. Hurts was one of the NFL’s most efficient runners out of 11, regardless of position. He had 649 yards and seven touchdowns on just 96 rushing attempts, which gave him 6.8 yards per carry, 1.8 yards after contact per carry, and a first down percentage of 39.6.
Not bad for a quarterback. We’re still on the fence regarding Hurts’ ability to comfortably become Philly’s franchise passer in the long term, but he’s more than proven his value in this specific schematic constraint.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 5.5
We have no idea what the Steelers’ offense will look like in 2022. We don’t even know who the starting quarterback will be between Mitch Trubisky, Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph, and we’re betting that head coach Mike Tomlin doesn’t know yet, either. So, let’s throw that transitional issue to the side for now, and talk about Pittsburgh’s defense.
Last season, the Steelers ranked 14th in Defensive DVOA, a sharp decline from 2020, when they ranked first. There was also a serious fall in Run Defense DVOA, from fifth to 27th, and we can point to the absence of defensive tackle Stephon Tuitt as the primary reason why. Tuitt was one of the NFL’s best run-stopping hammerheads, but he missed the entire 2021 season due to a knee injury, and his need to take time away from football after his brother was struck and killed by a car. Tuitt retired in June, leaving Cameron Heyward where he had been before — as the epicenter of Pittsburgh’s run defense. Heyward had to play like Superman just to hold it together, and he’s perfectly capable of that, but even Aaron Donald needs help, and Heyward isn’t far off that in terms of talent.
When Heyward was off the field (174 total snaps in 2021), Pittsburgh didn’t have much of a run defense at all. They allowed 4.5 yards per carry with Heyward, and 5.5 without. Hopefully, the recent signing of former Browns and Bengals lineman Larry Ogunjobi will right the ship, because it’s likely that the Steelers’ defense will have no margin for error in 2022 with that aforementioned transitional offense.
Steelers get a steal in Larry Ogunjobi. Similar dimensions to Stephon Tuitt, with the potential to affect opposing offenses like-as-like as a pass-rusher and run defender. No. 65 is a bad dude. pic.twitter.com/HJhGrX4bee
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) June 21, 2022
San Francisco 49ers: 9
Now that the 49ers have signed Deebo Samuel to a well-deserved three-year, $73.5 million contract extension with $58.1 million guaranteed, perhaps Samuel won’t be as perturbed about the ways in which Kyle Shanahan used him last season. Word was, Samuel wasn’t too pleased about his team using him as a running back down the stretch, as injuries started to claim San Francisco’s backfield.
Samuel did address this on August 2, after he’d been seriously paid.
“That is false,” he said of the rumors. “There was a lot of things that came out that I wanted to speak on, but at the end of the day, I wasn’t allowed to. So, you can turn on the tape, go back to the Cowboys game, it kind of shows what kind of player I am. And also, you can go turn on the Pro Bowl tape and what I said about being a wideback, I don’t mind doing whatever it takes for this team to win.”
There are worse examples of Samuel as a runner than his 26-yard touchdown scamper against the Cowboys in the wild-card round. Samuel starts to the right, cuts back, and embarrasses everybody with stars on their helmets on the way to the end zone.
Overall, Samuel’s season as a runner was historically great.
Deebo Samuel's nine rushing touchdowns didn't just lead the league among receivers in 2021. It's more than twice as many rushing touchdowns as any other receiver has had in a season in NFL history.
(Tavon Austin had four in 2015, and Ray Renfro had four in 1953). pic.twitter.com/vyhX6rTU7B
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) August 6, 2022
Now, the question is — will Shanahan and his staff continue to do that? They have the underrated Elijah Mitchell, who impressed as a power back after the 49ers took him in the sixth round of the 2021 draft out of Louisiana. There’s new starting quarterback Trey Lance, who has already proven to be a serious asset in the run game. Shanahan has long been known to devise some of the most multiple and effective run concepts in the NFL; having Samuel continue his success as that “wideback” might be just the ticket to take that offense over the top.
Seattle Seahawks: 61.0
Like the Steelers, the Seahawks have an undefined quarterback situation that will take time to resolve. Nobody knows whether it will be Drew Lock or Geno Smith, or some combination thereof, until Pete Carroll and John Schneider can amble into the 2023 draft with enough capital to (hopefully) grab their next franchise quarterback.
Also like the Steelers, the Seahawks have some serious questions on defense, so let’s stay there. The Legion of Boom is completely gone, and with it, any vestige of defensive dominance. This was especially true at the cornerback position, where an overmanned group had one interception and allowed eight touchdowns. It would have been even worse had deep safety Quandre Diggs (the one current guy who would have fit just fine in the LOB) not covered up so many coverage busts. Carroll hasn’t had a true alpha cornerback since Richard Sherman’s salad days.
So, the Seahawks tried in the 2022 draft to do what they did in 2011 with Sherman — get a franchise cornerback in the later rounds. They took Cincinnati’s Coby Bryant in the fourth round, and that could turn out to be a real steal. Bryant was in Sauce Gardner’s shadow, but he was more than a sidekick — last season, he allowed just 33 catches on 75 targets for 460 yards, 178 yards after the catch, three touchdowns, three interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 61.0. In the College Football Playoff semifinal loss to Alabama — Bryant’s final college game — he gave up just two catches on five targets for 18 yards, two yards after the catch, and an opponent passer rating of 51.0.
Bryant isn’t as aggressive as Sherman or Gardner, who perfectly mirrors Sherman’s playing style, as Sherm himself has said. Bryant is a smooth defender who can trail through a route on an island (Cincinnati played as much single-high as any NCAA defense in 2021), and he’ll surprise you with his speed and ball skills.
After years of iffy drafts and subsequent defensive attrition, Carroll and Schneider might have something special in this particular mid-round pick. Like they used to have more often than not.
Rookie CB Coby Bryant, a star of early Seahawks camp, describes how he knocked a Drew Lock fade pass away from DK Metcalf in a red-zone scrimmage.
He feels “I’m passing the tests”—but there’s a lot of work to do. ”I’m just trying to get my name out there that I can compete” pic.twitter.com/6Ea2se4Rg1
— Gregg Bell (@gbellseattle) August 2, 2022
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 14
Ideally, you have some level of continuity in your secondary. This was not the case for the 2021 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Per Football Outsiders, the Bucs used 14 different combinations of their five starting defensive backs last season, with 12 different players appearing in games.
That’s a lot of coaching up on the fly. Most of this had to do with injuries — Tampa Bay ranked sixth in Adjusted Games Lost in the secondary — and it was a credit to defensive coordinator Todd Bowles that the Bucs still managed to rank 10th in Pass Defense DVOA. This may be one of many reasons that Bowles is now the team’s head coach.
One bit of good news is that high AGL numbers tend to regress to the mean in the following season, meaning there’s a very small chance that Bowles and his staff will have to play musical chairs with his defensive backs to that degree. Another bit of good news is that of the 11(!) defensive backs who had at least 100 coverage snaps for the team, all but three (Sean Murphy-Bunting, Rashad Robinson, and Ross Cockrell) allowed opponent passer ratings under 100.0, and five (Andrew Adams, Jamel Dean, Richard Sherman, Antoine Winfield Jr., and Pierre Desir) allowed opponent passer ratings under 80.0. Carlton Davis, the team’s primary cornerback, barely missed the cut at 80.9.
The other good news? Second-year safety Antoine Winfield Jr., who we ranked as the NFL’s fifth-best player at his position, became that secondary’s alpha dog in 2021.
Tennessee Titans: 11
It’s an interesting time to be Ryan Tannehill. The Titans gave their franchise quarterback a four year, $118 million contract extension in 2020, after he had his best season to date and won the Comeback Player of the Year award following a 2019 season in which he recovered quite nicely from the end of his disastrous time with the Dolphins. Tannehill was also great in 2020, but there was a clear regression in 2021, in just about every category. Tannehill’s touchdown rate went from 6.9% to 4.0%, his interception rate rose from 1.5 to 2.6, his Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt plummeted from 7.22 to 5.89, and he fell from sixth in DYAR to 27th.
Losing Derrick Henry for half the season didn’t help. Injuries to primary receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones really didn’t help; it was very tough to get both of them on the field at the same time. But the main reason for Tannehill’s fallback was his performance on third down.
In 2020, Tannehill completed 79 third-down passes on 137 attempts for 819 yards, 508 air yards, seven touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 86.0. In 2021, he completed 111 of 165 third-down attempts for 1,153 yards, 692 air yards, seven touchdowns, a league-high 11 interceptions, and a passer rating of 73.6.
Both Brown and Jones are now gone. Brown was traded to the Eagles, and Jones is with the Buccaneers. That leaves first-round pick Treylon Burks (who has a similar skill set to Brown’s, but it might take time to show up at the NFL level), new guy Robert Woods (a highly underrated and productive receiver when healthy), and a lot of question marks. Tannehill has been a great quarterback in the past, and it’s a pretty recent past, but the time to turn things back around is now. Tannehill carries a $57.4 million dead cap charge in 2022, so he’s not going anywhere. But another off year could have the Titans looking elsewhere as the finances become more manageable — perhaps to Malik Willis, the Liberty star they took in the third round of the 2022 draft.
Washington Commanders: 34
I do not think that Washington Commanders defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio should lose his job because he’s a wingnut. I have no interest in cancel culture. However, I would say that the Redskins/Football Team/Commanders/INSERT YOUR TEAM NAME HERE, who have been up to their collective gills with toxic culture for a good long time, might want to review Del Rio’s employment status because of this: He took a completely stacked roster onto the field last season, and put forth a defense that finished 27th in DVOA.
Not great, Bob.
But wait, there’s more! Washington’s pass defense, even with the addition of stud former Bengals cornerback William Jackson III, was among the NFL’s worst in 2021. The Commanders ranked 28th in Pass Defense DVOA, and the playbook Del Rio had didn’t seem to benefit anybody, what with coverage busts all over the place.
unintentional invert 3 from your washington commanders pic.twitter.com/5GSsxNmRQa
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) August 5, 2022
Last season, no defense allowed more passing touchdowns than Washington’s 34, to just 11 interceptions. That defense also allowed 400 catches on 597 attempts for 4,542 yards, a completion rate of 67.0%, a yards per attempt allowed of 7.6, an opponent passer rating of 100.9, and an opponent EPA of 67.90. The other teams hanging around at the bottom of all these defensive metrics — the Jets, Jaguars, and Lions — didn’t have anywhere near the talent Washington did… so when you’re assessing blame, where else can you go? And how do we expect things to get better in 2022?
