Divisional round weekend is often regarded as the best weekend in football. The best eight teams are in action to determine who will play for the respective conference championships, and usually promises four really quality football games.
Every team is in this spot for a reason, but they all have an achilles heel that, if exploited, could turn their next mistake into the final act of their season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Drive sustainability
The Buccaneers finished 20th in yards per drive this season, and that’s with six games against the NFC South. They were also a high-variance team, finishing 10th in offensive variance. My biggest worry about the Bucs is we don’t know which version will show up. Will it be the wild-card Bucs that looked like the 2007 Patriots? Or will it be the Bucs team that showed up the first time they played the Lions where they only put up 251 yards of offense and didn’t score a touchdown?
Green Bay Packers: Defensive coordinator Joe Barry
This is a match made in hell for the Packers. Their pass defense was actually one of the best when it came to preventing deep balls. If they were playing Tampa Bay, I’d like their chances a lot more. However, they are playing the 49ers, who will slice and dice Green Bay underneath with shallow in-breakers and YAC. This is a very conservative defense. They don’t send a lot of pressure, only blitzing on 22.4 percent of snaps, and with good reason. Despite not blitzing a ton, they give up the second-highest completion percentage when blitzing.
They remind me a little bit of the Ed Donatell Vikings from a season ago. They play conservative because they basically have to. And if you give Brock Purdy time to find one of the Monstars he has on offense, they’ll take full advantage of that and eat you up.
Houston Texans: Play-action defense
The Texans’ defense was slightly better than mediocre as it pertains to EPA, finishing 14th in EPA per play. They’ve had the likes of Derek Stingley play at an elite level, rookie Will Anderson showed that he could be their franchise edge rusher, and Jonathan Greenard racked up 12.5 sacks. They have a lot of talent at each level, but they were the worst team in the league this season at defending play action.
Houston gave up 1,334 yards off of play action passes, which is the most in the NFL. They also allowed a completion percentage of 71.9 off of play action, which was the third-worst in the NFL. Of all quarterbacks with at least 75 dropbacks off play action, Lamar Jackson ranked fifth in completion percentage and threw the fourth most touchdowns. I fully expect Todd Monken to dial up a lot of play action passes, especially if Baltimore can establish the run early on.
Kansas City Chiefs: Skill positions
This isn’t breaking news by any means- the Chiefs’ receivers are bad. Now, credit where it’s due, they have found more ways to use Rashee Rice as an intermediate threat between the numbers, rather than just giving him screens or slants that he turns into big YAC numbers. Outside of Rice, though, their next leading receiver is Justin Watson with 460 yards on 27 catches. It is Travis Kelce and Rice in the pass game, Isiah Pacheco in the run game, and nothing else substantial.
Detroit Lions: Pass defense
The Lions’ defense has taken a step forward this season. They aren’t an elite unit overall, but they went from 31st in EPA in 2022 to 21st in 2023. That said, their pass defense still leaves a lot to be desired. They allowed the most passing yards in the league this season and the fifth most touchdown passes. They face two really great receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin this weekend, as well as vertical threat Trey Palmer. Baker Mayfield certainly won’t be afraid to let it fly and say “F*** it, Mike’s down there somewhere.” If the Bucs can connect and convert on a few chunk plays, this game could slip away from Detroit.
Buffalo Bills: Injuries
I mean come on, man. The Bills have been beat to death this season when it comes to injuries, and it continues to pile on. Terrel Bernard is looking like he’ll be a game-time decision against the Chiefs. If he can’t play, that really gives an advantage to Kansas City when it comes to the utilization of Travis Kelce. Plus, Christian Benford and Taylor Rapp with both be out, meaning they’ll have to lean on Dane Jackson and Kaiir Elam on the outside. Gabe Davis also won’t be active offensively, and we remember the performance he had against the Chiefs in the playoffs two years ago. In a year where they should be able to get over the Kansas City-sized hump, injuries could be what derails those hopes.
San Francisco 49ers: Playing from behind
It’s rare that teams have commanding leads over the 49ers. When it does happen, though, they tend to implode when they have to ditch their usual script. They got down early to the Vikings and had to become more pass-heavy, which led to late turnovers as they tried to win late. Against Baltimore, they trailed at the half and their second half drives were as follows:
- Three-and-out
- One play, interception
- Punt
- Turnover on downs
- Touchdown
- Interception
When the 49ers get down, they get out of sorts.
Baltimore Ravens: Lack of experience
Lamar Jackson is awesome, and is likely about to be a two-time MVP. That said, he has the same amount of playoff wins as C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love, and one less playoff win than Baker Mayfield. Now, injuries have obviously played a part in that. However, he is 1-2 in playoff games. There is a lack of “Been there, done that” when it comes to the Ravens. Baltimore hasn’t made it past the divisional round in the Lamar era, and hasn’t appeared in an AFC Championship Game since the 2012 season. Fair or not, I have a lot of reservations about the Ravens until they show they can win a huge playoff game.
