Last week, in the bushfire-ravaged Victorian town of Alexandra, a small but angry group of locals gathered outside a hospital where the premier, Jacinta Allan, was holding a press conference.
After demanding to speak with her, incorrectly claiming she deliberately cut internet access ahead of the event, the group surrounded a car carrying the treasurer, Jaclyn Symes – mistakenly believing Allan was inside – and blocked it from leaving.
Allan was advised to exit through the back of the hospital, with the image of her car speeding away reinforcing a belief, held by some regional Victorians, that her government doesn’t care about their plight.
This sentiment has been seized upon by One Nation as it works to expand its presence in Victoria ahead of the state election, buoyed up by this week’s Newspoll showing it polling higher than the Coalition for the first time federally.
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Next month, the party’s newest recruit, former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce, will attend a conference in Horsham which is organised by the Across Victoria Alliance – several members of which are considering standing as One Nation candidates in November.
The party’s Victorian secretary, Bianca Colecchia, says it will be One Nation’s “biggest election yet” in the state.
“I really think that all seats are up for grabs this election,” she says, confirming the party will field a candidate in each lower and upper house seat in the state.
But will One Nation be able to convert regional rage into electoral success?
A febrile atmosphere
On 9 January, firefighters faced catastrophic conditions for the first time since the 2019-20 black summer, with strong winds and extreme fuelling bushfires that have torn through 418,000 hectares and destroyed 1,500 structures, including 435 homes, and 38,000 livestock have been killed.
Firefighters have been praised for their efforts, containing 200 blazes to six as of Tuesday, but criticism of the government’s response – and its funding of the CFA – has been relentless. While the CFA’s 2024-25 annual report revealed an increase of $21.8m in funding, it wasn’t tabled in parliament until Tuesday – almost three months late.
Against this backdrop, One Nation has sought to position itself as a vehicle for regional discontent, alongside a number of other vocal critics.
These include the United Firefighters Union secretary, Peter Marshall, Andrew Weidemann from the Across Victoria Alliance and John Houston, the president of CFA Volunteers Group Inc, who last week issued a joint call for an upper house inquiry into the fires, a proposal rejected by government.
The trio also campaigned together in 2025 against the government’s emergency services levy, which expands and increases the existing fire services levy to also cover other emergency services. Both Weidemann and Houston’s groups were set up in the months after the levy was announced.
On 9 January, as firefighters battled blazes, One Nation issued a statement linking the bushfire response to the levy.
“It is not good enough. Victorians deserve better, and frontline workers deserve to have the proper equipment to safely perform their job and keep our communities safe. Where are these funds going?” Colecchia said.
The levy, combined with the removal of third-party objection rights for renewable energy projects and expanded powers for VicGrid to access private land without consent has led to a febrile atmosphere in the regions. Protesters have left cow manure outside the premier’s office, displayed signs on fire trucks that read “ditch the bitch,” and at the News Corp bush summit, Allan was heckled, including by a woman who wore a noose around her neck.
It led the government to delay the introduction of the levy twice for farmers, now until after the election.
An election clash
One Nation currently holds a single upper house seat but has plans to grow this election, Colecchia said.
While she wouldn’t disclose the party’s target seats, strategy for the election, or any membership data, she said the “tide is turning in Victoria”.
“Yes, we tend to be a bit more of a progressive state, but that tends to be a bit more in inner-city Melbourne – that doesn’t reflect the view of the entire state,” Colecchia said, noting the regions were the party’s “strongest areas”.
She said the party’s main issues would be cost of living, crime, housing, energy and Victoria’s treaty with First Nations people, with policies to be announced soon.
Colecchia denied there was any link between the party and the Across Victoria Alliance, which is hosting its first conference next month, where Barnaby Joyce is due to speak. The opposition leader, Jess Wilson, is also advertised to appear, prompting criticism from the premier – who has dubbed the event “One Nation’s misinformation convention” and urged Wilson not to attend.
While Weidemann confirmed members of the Across Victoria Alliance were keen to run with One Nation at the election, Colecchia said she hadn’t held conversations with the group.
“Of course, they will have to go through the same process as everybody else, but we are always open to people that are value-aligned,” she said.
Kos Samaras, the former Labor strategist turned pollster with RedBridge, is doubtful One Nation’s play at Victoria will pay off. He said Joyce would be unpopular in Melbourne seats, while the Victorian Nationals brand was the “strongest in the country”.
“It’s going to give the National party the shits, it’s going to suck up resources, but I don’t think One Nation is going to have any luck against the National party,” Samaras said.
It is a view shared by the Nationals’ leader, Danny O’Brien.
“Look, I hear a lot of talk about One Nation,” O’Brien told reporters last week. “But from One Nation, that’s all I hear, is talk.”
O’Brien referenced 2017 comments from Joyce, then the federal Nationals leader, that Australia would “go down the toilet” if it was run by One Nation.
“That probably says it better than I could,” O’Brien said.
