LAS VEGAS — If the roundball gods are good to me, Miami, Providence and Xavier will land in the Final Four in Houston, and the upstart outsider will be Florida Atlantic.
In this century, four 11-seeded teams, a 10 seed and a 9 have scraped their way into the national semifinals, thus the FAU wild card.
The Owls, 60-to-1 shots on the Westgate SuperBook’s Final Four sheets, appeared in their first AP poll two weeks ago and jumped three spots, to 21, this week.
Under fifth-year coach Dusty May, a former Indiana student manager under Bob Knight, FAU won 19 of its first 20 games. It’s the country’s lone squad among the top 30 in offensive and defensive effective field-goal percentage.
The Owls’ 12.4-point average scoring margin ranks 11th. They had covered 14 of 17 lined games through last weekend, too, and are the nation’s top team against the spread.
I nabbed 10-1 Final Four odds on Miami, 20-1 on Providence and 12-1 on Xavier. Plus, to win it all, I’ve got 85-1 and 50-1 ducats on the Hurricanes, 200-1 on the Friars and 60-1 on the Musketeers.
If that specific quartet plays that final weekend, my guaranteed national-semifinal and final profits would be tremendous.
The reality, however, is that the SuperBook’s Final Four favorites are Alabama and Houston, both at +175 (risk $100 to win $175) to play inside NRG Stadium, and Kansas and UCLA, both at +250.
Westgate executive vice president Jay Kornegay and his SuperBook staff unveiled their Final Four numbers Nov. 15.
“It’s a very popular bet because it gives everybody a little wiggle room, outside of winning the national championship,” Kornegay said. “A lot of people like to wager on them based on that room for error.”
ADDED SPICE
The SuperBook’s Final Four menu has attracted attention for several years. One patron risked $5,000, at 5-1 odds, on the defending champion Jayhawks to return to the national semifinals.
Someone else wagered $2,500, at 40-1, on Memphis. Others bet $2,000 on UCLA (4-1) and UConn (3-1), and $1,000 wagers have been placed on Oklahoma (60-1), New Mexico (50-1) and Iowa State (12-1).
“Those are on the higher end,” Kornegay said. “There’s a couple dozen $500 wagers. We could have 10 $40 bets, an accumulation of wagers, and we’ll say, ‘Well, we should move this because they keep betting this.’
“There’s a lot of conference play, and conference tournaments, left. You could be looking at a No. 1 NCAA seed here in January, but you could be a 4 or 6 seed by March. Nothing is a lock. There’s a lot of ball left to play.”
Over about 10 weeks, Final Four odds on Illinois have slipped from 10-1 to 18-1, Bradley 400-1 to 2,000-1, Northwestern 100-1 to 1,000-1 and DePaul, Loyola and Notre Dame 60-1 to 2,000-1. Chicago State remains at 2,000-1.
(The Cougars, however, had covered 12 of 18 through Monday. They are money.)
Anyone Final Four-bullish on the Illini, who won for the fifth time in six games Tuesday, should sprint to a SuperBook.
Purdue (20-1, now 3-1), Alabama (12-1, +175), and Kansas and UCLA (both opened 5-1) would have been wise early buys.
My master Final Four sheet is a mess of circled odds, up and down arrows, asterisks and odds shifts in highlighter yellow. To me, this is the epitome of entertainment, added spice to the NCAA Tournament spectacle.
I weeded out Duke (Coach K ain’t walkin’ through that door) and Gonzaga (if the Zags were going to win one, they would have done so by now), North Carolina, Kentucky, Arizona, Baylor, Auburn and others.
I did purchase title-ticket insurance on Houston (8-1), UConn and UCLA (both at 10-1) and Texas (16-1), top-30 regulars all season in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency.
A 4-FOR-4 MASTERPIECE?
Twenty-three years ago, those hoops deities were kind to me. Nine months before the Final Four in Indianapolis, in a column for a national outlet, I had tapped Michigan State to defeat Florida in the finale. And that’s precisely what unfolded inside the RCA Dome. It required tact and expertise, and a huge dose of fortune that has not returned.
Go 4-for-4, though, with the Final Four? That’s true art.
For posterity, I nabbed an 18-1 Final Four ticket on San Diego State, the alma mater. The Aztecs have never played in a Final Four, so just getting to Houston would be akin to winning a crown.
I’ve also taken positions with Kansas State (60-1 to win title), Kansas (18-1 for title, +400 Final Four), Oklahoma (F4 40-1), Tennessee (F4 +300), Michigan State (F4 12-1) and Marquette (62-1 title ticket).
St. Mary’s has impressed, owning a KenPom No. 7 rating. Opening Final Four odds of 20-1, though, have been sliced to +950. Had to be early. And the Gaels are 40-1 to win it all.
Kornegay laughed, a little, when I first mentioned Florida Atlantic as possibly this season’s George Mason of ’06, VCU or Butler from ’11, Wichita State from ’13 or the Ramblers of ’18.
“One always squeezes in,’’ he said. ‘‘I can see the Sweet 16 [for the Owls]. The Final Four? Crazy, but you never know. I remember when we were first introduced to Butler, Loyola . . . could happen.”
I did, however, pass on Florida Atlantic at 300-1 to win the national title.
My craziness does have limits.
