The next generation of quarterbacks is coming. And some — like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen — have already arrived, becoming the marquee players of today’s NFL.
And there are quite a few who are blossoming before our eyes. Eight of the league’s top-12 quarterbacks now reside in the AFC, which should indicate how tough that conference will be this year.
That means quarterbacks like Tua Tagovailoa need to step up, or get left behind.
If Tagovailoa doesn’t move into the top third of NFL starting quarterbacks in the next season or two, the Miami Dolphins will have wasted their time on yet another average starting quarterback.
Here’s a ranking of all 32 starting QBs in the league:
NFL Elites
— Put these quarterbacks on any team and they are likely advancing to the postseason.
1. Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes
Mahomes, who turns 27 in September, is athletic, has a cannon for an arm, and has already proven he’s a winner (53-13 record) in his four seasons as an NFL starter. Life without Tyreek Hill will bring some challenges this season, but he’s capable of overcoming them.
2. Buffalo’s Josh Allen
Allen, who turned 26 in May, has made tremendous improvements each season. Last year’s shootout with Mahomes in the playoffs showed what could be the future of the AFC if he keeps developing. But losing Brian Daboll, his former offensive coordinator, could present a challenge unless Ken Dorsey picks up where Daboll left off.
3. Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers
Even though Rodgers has only won one championship in his 17 seasons, view him as a gift to the NFL because the 38-year-old could retire and walk away from the game any day now. His lackluster receiver unit could make this a transition year for the Packers.
4. Tampa Bay’s Tom Brady
Brady, who flirted with retirement this offseason before coming back, had one of his best statistical seasons last year. He threw for 5,316 yards, which is the third highest total in league history, completing 67.5% of his passes and threw 43 touchdown passes.
5. Los Angeles Rams’ Matthew Stafford
At this point it is obvious Stafford was an elite quarterback whose talents were being wasted in Detroit. Now that the 34-year-old is a champion, its possible that he and coach Sean McVay could make a couple more runs at winning a title for the Rams.
6. Dallas’ Dak Prescott
Prescott catches a lot of flak because of the franchise he plays for, and the expectations that brings. But there are stretches of games, and seasons when the 28-year-old seems unstoppable. The playmakers around him have changed a bit, and his offensive line and tailback are aging, so Prescott probably has a two-year window to win a championship in Dallas.
The door-knockers
— These quarterbacks are knocking on the doorstep of being elites.
7. Denver’s Russell Wilson
Wilson, who owns a 104-53-1 record as an NFL starter, was in the company of the league’s elites until last year’s injury-marred, disappointing season. Oddly, he had a 103.1 passer rating last season, which was his seventh season with a 100-plus rating. Can a new team, new city, new coach help the 33-year-old regain his form in 2022?
8. Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson
Watson has been intertwined in some serious sexual assault allegations, which could lead to a lengthy NFL suspension. But his off-the-field drama didn’t stop franchises from lining up to trade for him, or keep the Browns from giving him a five-year, $230 million fully guaranteed contract. When Watson does return to the field, will he be able to build on his promising first four seasons in Houston, where he logged a 104.5 career passer rating?
9. Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow
Burrow completed 70.4% of his passes last season while throwing 288.2 yards per game for a Bengals team that advanced to the Super Bowl. The hope is that the first overall pick in the 2020 NFL draft will continue to blossom and become the best quarterback in Bengals history by the time this decade is over.
10. Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson
Jackson, a two-time Pro Bowl selection and the 2019 Most Valuable Player, averaged a career-high 240 passing yards per game, and 63.9 rushing yards per game last season. The biggest concern about the 25-year-old is whether his scrambling style is sustainable as he ages and will injuries set in?
11. Los Angeles Chargers’ Justin Herbert
Herbert has completed 66.2% of his passes, throwing for 292.2 yards per game and has averaged 34.5 touchdown passes per season in his first two years. But his team owns a 15-17 record with him as a starter, and those games featured a couple fourth-quarter losses where the team might have won if Herbert had been a but more clutch.
12. Las Vegas’ Derek Carr
Carr is one of the clutches quarterbacks in today’s game. Problem is, his win-loss record (57-70) doesn’t reflect how often he’s carried his franchise. This offseason the 31-year-old was reunited with Devante Adams, his college receiver, and now has Brady’s long-time offensive coordinator (Josh McDaniels) as his head coach, so the odds of his game improving significantly are high.
In the waiting room
— These quarterbacks have shown they have talent, but something is missing.
13. Arizona’s Kyler Murray
Murray has had impressive starts the past two seasons, but his play tailed off at the end of each season for various reasons. But when healthy the 25-year-old is a threat passing the ball (270.5 yards per game last season) and running with it (30.2 yards per game on 6.3 attempts). He’s one of the NFL’s most accurate quarterbacks, so it’s only a matter of time before he puts it all together.
14. San Francisco’s Jimmy Garoppolo
Garoppolo owns a 31-14 record from his five seasons as a starter for the 49ers. While he has a knack for missing the big throws that decide the outcome of games, the 30-year-old’s 98.9 career passer rating proves he’s no slouch, and can lead whatever team he’s starting for in 2022 to the postseason. But will the 49ers decide that now’s the time to go with second-year quarterback Trey Lance?
15. Minnesota’s Kirk Cousins
Cousins, who became the first veteran player to receive a fully-guaranteed multi-year contract as a free agent, has had a passer rating that surpassed 100 for the past three seasons, and had five seasons where his passer rating surpassed 100. Problem is Cousins owns a 59-59-2 record as an NFL starter, and age likely won’t be kind to the 34-year-old.
16. Tennessee’s Ryan Tannehill
Tannehill has helped the Titans win the AFC South the past two years and owns a 30-13 record with Tennessee. But his body of work says he’s more of a game-manager than difference-maker. Tennessee trading standout receiver A.J. Brown to the Eagles could create some issues unless Treylon Burks, the 18th overall pick in the 2022 draft, makes an immediate is impact.
17. Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa
Tagovailoa’s pocket presence and accuracy gives him a chance to become of the NFL’s elites if he can master the play-action offense new coach Mike McDaniel is installing, gets adequate protection, and makes the most of his playmakers — Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, Cedrick Wilson, Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert — the team has put around him in his third season as a starter.
18. Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts
Hurts led the Eagles to a 8-7 record last season, but he only completed 61.3% of his passes, throwing for 3,144 yards and 16 touchdowns in 15 games. His athleticism and scrambling ability (786 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns off 139 carries last season) keeps teams off-balance. But he’ll need to become a better pocket passer (87.2 passer rating last season) to take another step forward.
19. New England’s Mac Jones
Jones had an impressive rookie season, leading the 10-7 Patriots to the postseason by completing 67.6% of his passes, throwing for 3,801 yards and 22 touchdowns in the regular season. The hope is that he takes a step forward in Year 2, even without Josh McDaniels as his play-caller.
Overripe fruit
— These quarterbacks were once good, but age and/or injuries have limited their effectiveness.
20. Washington’s Carson Wentz
Wentz is playing for this third team in three years because he hasn’t stepped up to become the leader and playmaker he showed the potential to be early in his career with the Eagles. If he can match the season he had for the Colts (62.4% of passes completed for 3,563 yards and 27 touchdowns) in Washington the 29-year-old will make the Commanders a force.
21. Indianapolis’ Matt Ryan
Ryan’s had an impressive 14-year career as a starter for the Falcons, but his regression the past few seasons motivated Atlanta to move on. Ryan, 37, hasn’t delivered a winning season since 2017, and he’s been sacked 40 or more times the past four seasons. We’ll see if a new team, and a solid run game can prop him up.
22. New Orleans’ Jameis Winston
Winston was having a solid season (102.8 passer rating) as the Saints’ starting quarterback before tearing an ACL in Game 7. This season we’ll see how he rebounds from the knee injury, and how efficient he can be without Sean Payton holding his hand now that that the quarterback whisperer has retired from coaching.
23. Detroit’s Jared Goff
Goff racked up a ton of wins in four of his five seasons as a starter for the Rams, but struggled last season as the Lions starting quarterback (3-10-1). While the 28-year-old completed 67.2% of his passes, he only threw 19 touchdown passes and produced his second-worst yards per attempt (6.6) average.
Haven’t proven anything
— Either they are too young, or haven’t achieved anything noteworthy in their careers up to this point.
24. New York Giants’ Daniel Jones
Jones, a 2019 first-round pick, has struggled in all three of his seasons as a starter for the Giants, which explains why that franchise didn’t pick up the fifth-year option o his contract. Jones, who owns a 12-25 record as a starter, will likely benefit from having a healthy Saquon Barkley, and from working with Daboll, who helped Allen take his game to the next level in Buffalo.
25. Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence
Lawrence, the No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft, had a disastrous rookie season. But nothing about the Urban Meyer-led Jaguars was set up for success. Doug Pederson, Jacksonville’s new head coach, has helped many NFL quarterbacks clean up their game, so we should soon learn what Lawrence’s potential is.
26. Chicago’s Justin Fields
It was obvious the speed of the NFL gave Fields issues last season, which explains why he won just two of the 10 games he started for the Bears. The former Ohio State Buckeye averaged 155.8 passing yards per game on 58.9% completion, and 35 rushing yards (5.8 per attempt).
27. Houston’s Davis Mills
The 23-year-old had moments his rookie season where he flourished (88.8 passer rating), and then instances where he was flustered by bad decision-making. He threw 16 touchdowns with 10 interceptions and was sacked 31 times in his 13 games played last season, but a lackluster supporting staff contributed to his struggles.
28. New York Jets’ Zach Wilson
The tools are apparent. Wilson, the second overall pick in the 2021 draft, has a cannon for an arm, a quick release, and the athleticism needed to buy time in the pocket and gain extra yards with his legs. Problem is, the game was moving too fast for the 22-year-old last year, and he needs a better support staff around him.
Either-or QBs
— These are legitimate camp battles that can go either way.
29. Pittsburgh’s Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett
Trubisky, the second pick in the 2017 draft, owns a 29-21 record as an NFL starter, and owns a 87.0 career passer rating. The Steelers signed the 27-year-old to a two-year deal potentially worth $14.3 million and then drafted Pickett this year with the 20th overall pick.
30. Carolina’s Sam Darnold or Matt Corral
Darnold, who owns a 17-32 record in his five seasons as an NFL starter, has had one season where he’s completed more than 60% of his passes. He hasn’t proven he’s a quality starter yet, which is why Corral, who was taken in third round this spring, will get every opportunity to win the starting spot.
31. Atlanta’s Marcus Mariota or Desmond Ridder
Mariota had an unimpressive run (29-32) as an starter in Tennessee before being replaced by Tannehill, and now the Falcons are hoping that a reunion with Arthur Smith, his former offensive coordinator, will help him resurrect his career as a starter. Atlanta took Ridder in the third round this year as insurance.
32. Seattle’s Geno Smith or Drew Lock
Smith, who owns a 13-21 record as a starter in his eight NFL seasons, had a 103.0 passer rating as Wilson’s replacement for four games last year. Lock, whom Seattle traded for when sending Wilson to Denver, had a 8-13 record as the Broncos starter the past three years.
