The biggest oil supply shock in decades has entered its fourth month - with no resolution in sight as neither the U.S. nor Iran appears willing to budge - yet the market has settled into an eerie calm. This disconnect reflects an uncomfortable reality: the biggest drivers of today's energy market are a host of unknowns.
In recent weeks, benchmark Brent crude has retreated from a four-year high of $118 a barrel, set in March, to below $95, returning to levels that sit comfortably within the range of the past two decades. This has happened even though the Strait of Hormuz - the world's most critical oil chokepoint - has remained largely shut for more than three months, disrupting flows equivalent to roughly 13% of global supply.
