Brent, the global crude benchmark, traded at roughly $100.30 a barrel on Wednesday afternoon. The price has been circling that level for weeks. On September 10, Brent jumped above $107, its strongest showing in nearly four months. It then settled at $100.34 on Monday and finished Tuesday slightly lower, near $99.25.
A War, Not Ordinary Market Swings, Is Setting the Price
The current run began when the United States and Israel struck Iran on February 28. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz nearly stopped, and the International Energy Agency has described the result as the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market." Brent came within a whisker of $120 in the first weeks of the war.
The picture has improved since then, though not fully. A commodity strategist at TD Securities estimates that Middle East flows have climbed to about 80% of their prewar pace, while JPMorgan analysts calculated that total shipments were still about 6 million barrels a day under the 2025 average, CNBC reported.
Houthis Turn the Red Sea Into a Second Front
Yemen is the other pressure point. Houthi fighters have reportedly seized Perim Island after capturing the port of Mokha, and they declared a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia in July. Attacks on vessels near Bab al-Mandeb have pushed the kingdom to send crude through the Suez Canal or around Africa to reach Asian customers, The National reported.
Washington has held back for now. President Donald Trump has decided against striking the Houthis despite Saudi requests, according to officials cited by The New York Times.
Riyadh's main detour around Hormuz was knocked out first. The East-West pipeline, built to move 7 million barrels a day to the Red Sea, was shut on September 11 after what the Saudi Energy Ministry called multiple attacks. Reuters sources said it resumed on Tuesday at a lower rate.
Full recovery is not here yet. Wire reporting describes the restart as being in its early stages, with export volumes targeted for later this week and Houthi strikes on Saudi infrastructure still continuing.
Talks in New York Take the Edge Off Prices
US and Iranian negotiators are meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. Trump said on Tuesday that people he spoke with saw strong momentum toward an agreement, though he has also indicated that a final deal could wait until after the midterm elections.
Analysts see limited room to fall. Daniela Hathorn of Capital.com argued that a believable Hormuz reopening plus stronger Saudi exports could drag Brent toward the low $90s, but that further declines would get harder unless physical flows improve. Salih Yilmaz of Bloomberg Intelligence said Brent could stay under $100 if current trends hold, while warning that inventories and other buffers are thinner than earlier in the conflict.
Why the Fed Is Watching Every Barrel
Expensive crude is now feeding into interest-rate policy. On September 16, the Federal Reserve lifted its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 3.75%–4%, its first increase in more than three years, in a unanimous 12–0 vote. Policymakers pointed to inflation driven partly by the oil spike, and a strong majority of them expect another hike before year-end.
For fuel-importing countries and households, that means costlier gasoline and costlier borrowing at the same time.
The outlook rests on three questions: whether the New York talks deliver a Hormuz arrangement, how quickly Saudi pipeline volumes recover, and whether the Houthi–Saudi confrontation spreads across Bab al-Mandeb. A collapse in negotiations or fresh attacks on tankers could send prices up fast.
Goldman Sachs has mapped the range. Its base case has Brent at $85 in December, but the bank says prices could top $120 if Gulf output averages 4 million barrels a day below prewar levels through 2027, versus a 0.5 million barrel shortfall in its central scenario.
