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John Patrick Schoeneman Jr., Assistant Professor of International Political Economics, Oklahoma State University

Oil and gas industry expected surplus – but war brought shortage instead

With fuel prices at record highs, a truck driver prepares to pump diesel into a tractor trailer at a gas station in Florida. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

In 2023, the International Energy Agency predicted that by 2028 the world’s oil companies would produce more oil than people wanted to buy. Prices responded to that and similar projections of slowing oil demand, dropping too low to attract investment for new wells and refineries.

No forecast anticipated that the Strait of Hormuz, the main route for Middle Eastern oil to reach global markets, would be almost completely blocked.

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