It’s draft week. So here comes our tidal wave of content for you …
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch /USA TODAY Network (Garrett Wilson); Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch/USA TODAY Network (Chris Olave); RobertScheer/USA TODAY Network (Jameson Williams)
• Ohio State wide receivers coach Brian Hartline will be in Las Vegas for Thursday night’s first round. Whose table he chooses to sit at remains to be seen.
“I don’t know,” he said Monday afternoon. “That’s called first-world problems. I also gotta figure out which afterparty I’m going to.”
Three days out, a top tier of draft-eligible wideouts has emerged, and three of the four were together in a receiver room in Columbus for the 2019 and ’20 seasons. Chris Olave arrived in ’18, and Garrett Wilson and Jameson Williams came together as part of the Buckeyes’ ’19 recruiting class. They won the Big Ten together twice. They went to the College Football Playoff together twice. They played, in their last game as a group, for a national title together.
Williams wound up transferring to Alabama after that loss to, yes, the Tide, and a year later all three are likely to go in the first half of the first round—a feat that few, if any, college position groupmates have ever pulled off.
So ahead of that, I figured we’d get scouting reports on all three from Hartline, who himself played at Ohio State, was drafted in the fourth round and played seven NFL seasons for the Dolphins and Browns.
On Wilson: “Garrett is gonna be very explosive. He’s a guy that is coming from the college hashes, and now gets to go play in the middle of the field on every single snap. I think the ability for him to get off the line of scrimmage, create separation at the catch point and then carry the ball after the fact is really gonna bode well in the NFL game. His catch radius is off the charts, and I think his ability to transition to the NFL will be smooth. Inside or outside, he’s a plug-and-play. You can put him anywhere you want. … And Garrett’s an ultimate competitor. He wants team periods every single minute of practice; he hates scout team periods—that’s how he’s wired. He always wants to compete; he always wants the game on the line. That’s just how he’s operated, both in high school and college.”
On Olave: “Chris is gonna be a quarterback’s dream—they’re gonna know where he’s going, when he’s supposed to be there, [he’s] always in the right spot. His ball-tracking and his completion percentage when targeted is off the charts. So I think a quarterback is gonna really appreciate the way he plays. And when it comes to ball-tracking, he can do it all. He could create so much separation so consistently on Saturdays, that the need to rise up and go above guys was few and far between. But when you turn on the film, you can see him doing it over and over again, like Garrett does. … Chris can play anywhere, it comes down to what you need done; these guys have been trained to play in every spot. So it doesn’t matter what you want. They both have a great feel for the game, and they both can play outside, too. … Chris, in the room, has a quiet confidence to him. He’s not gonna always speak up all the time, but he’s gonna be pulling guys to the side, that’s just who he is. He’s got a big heart. Like Garrett, they’re ultracompetitors, they just want to win. Anything that helps them do that, they’re gonna do it.”
On Williams: “Jameson, it’s well documented, he’s very explosive, can play at a high rate of speed the further he gets down the field. What I loved about Jamo is he always had so much energy; he was always available on the field, never really dinged up and always was a guy who brought juice in practice. Whether the ball was coming his way or not, he was one of those guys you wanted to have out there with you. … He became a great route runner. We spent so much time working on his route craft, and he believed in it so much, he was getting really good at it. So he’s not just a speed guy; he’s a route runner, too.”
And as for whether Hartline knew what he had back in 2019?
“I knew—I absolutely knew. It just came down to some variables,” he said. “COVID really threw things for a spin, season’s on, season’s off, we’re trying to make sure schematically we’re sound; we’re dealing with all kinds of things, A.B., as you’d imagine. But absolutely, I knew they were, and they all knew how I felt about them. … We knew exactly what great people they were, how great players they were; there’s no shock from me, or out of our room.”
Which is where Hartline told me he’s rooting just as hard for Williams (who transferred as rising star Jaxon Smith-Njigba created a logjam in the room) as he is for Olave and Wilson, because he’s proud of not just the work he did, but how they all found a way to pull it off on their own.
“I want to make sure you know that—it’s not me, it’s them,” he said. “Coaches just suggest. Players apply. To me, I’d be remiss to not say how four years ago, when Chris came walking into that room, my first year ever coaching, this was my goal. We haven’t had a first-round receiver since ’07, since Teddy [Ginn Jr.] and Anthony Gonzalez. So that absolutely was on the forefront of our mind as competitors. We’ve had a lot of successful NFL receivers; it’s well documented. But I really wanted to get us back to having first-round wideouts.”
We’re 72 hours from it happening—and as Hartline sees it, this is just the start. Referencing Smith-Njigba, I mentioned to him that he might have another one coming.
“Oh yeah,” he said. “And there’s more after that.”
Which is where we can tell you to keep an eye on Marvin Harrison Jr. (yes, he’s the son of the Hall of Famer) and Emeka Egbuka for 2024. And probably more after that, too.
• On Williams, with the likelihood that the Bama burner will go in the top half of the first round, the question becomes when he’ll be ready to actually play for his NFL team. I spoke to three teams over the last 24 hours that told me their doctors are telling them he’d almost certainly start the season on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list, which would sideline him, by rule, for the first six weeks of the season.
The hope then would be that he’d be clear for full football activity in mid to late October. And were he to start the season on PUP, the first chance he’d have to play would be in Week 7, which this year is the weekend of Oct. 23.
Now, this is where I tell you I think it’s silly when teams base huge decisions like this on whether they’re getting early rookie-year production from a guy. But based on that timeline, and that it might take a little time for Williams to adjust to his NFL offense, it’s fair to say any GM or coach who’s fighting for his job might hesitate to take him. The others? Well, for those guys, it’d make sense.
• Jags owner Shad Khan and I caught up late Sunday afternoon, and the last thing I asked him, as his team considers its options for the No. 1 pick, was where he stands on last year’s No. 1 pick—Trevor Lawrence.
Over three years at Clemson, Lawrence was widely seen as a generational quarterback prospect, alongside John Elway, Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck as the brightest to come into the NFL over the last four decades or so. Then, Lawrence’s Troy Aikman–type of rookie year happened, and, to be sure, some doubts crept into people’s minds. Some NFL folks thought he looked rawer than expected. Others questioned how fast he could see the field.
But 12 months later, Khan says he’s as convinced as ever that the Jags did the right thing a year ago, and that’s in part because of what Lawrence went through last year.
“I was really confident last year. If it’s possible, I’m even more confident now,” he said. “And I’ve really gotten to know him even more through all the trials and tribulations. I mean, I think he’s as incredibly talented a young man as there is. But I think he’s even a more incredible human being. So I think if there’s one decision in my decade of ownership—it was 10 years ago this January, you know—I think Trevor has to be right there among the top ones.”
• The drumbeat of teams looking to move down in the first round is strong, and it’s at multiple levels of the round, and getting louder as we get closer to the draft. The Jets, Panthers, Giants and Commanders have all engaged teams below them to at least inquire about moving down (and in some cases, way down) from the upper reaches of the round, in an effort to add picks in a year when the draft’s strength is outside the first round.
In addition, teams picking in the back half Thursday might have asked that some of those same teams sitting at the top of second round keep them in mind if they look to move into the end of the first round to pick up the fifth-year option on a player (whether it’s quarterback or a guy at another position).
All of it confirms most of what you’ve heard—that there isn’t a big difference between the 20th pick and the 60th pick this year, and that the meat of a draft that’s strong in numbers will likely prove to be in the second and third rounds.
• Identifying the top tier of players at receiver does leave out a notable name, in Arkansas’s Treylon Burks. So what gives? Yes, Burks was highly impressive as a Razorback—he had 66 catches for 1,104 yards and 11 touchdowns as a junior, to earn first-team All-SEC honors. But as a bigger slot (he came in at 6'2", 225 pounds), there really are two concerns.
The first is how he fits into an NFL offense, as the type of guy who you’d probably need to have a plan for. Along those lines, there have been comps to Deebo Samuel, but Burks isn’t seen as quite as fast or explosive as Samuel, and his 4.55 at combine didn’t help. Second, his weight is seen as an issue, too. Through no fault of his own, he had trouble keeping it off at Arkansas, and at times played as heavy as 240 pounds.
So add that up, and you get a really talented guy, who you have to feel pretty strongly about to take in the first round, since you’d have to accommodate him in certain ways.
• One thing that got the attention of plenty of NFL teams this month was Texans coach Lovie Smith telling the Houston media that he needed better corners to run the defense he did last year and wants to this year—largely because Smith is from the Tampa 2 family, one that typically hasn’t valued the position. And the answer, really, is that in today’s offensive age, defenses can’t play the same way they could 20 years ago.
“They’re not straight Cover 2 anymore,” said one rival executive. “I still wouldn’t think they’d value corners that high, but they do need corners, and things break down where everyone has to play at least some man now.”
For what it’s worth, the Texans are one of the teams that I’ve heard tied to LSU’s Derek Stingley Jr., a relatively polarizing prospect, while rival execs have mentioned to me how good a schematic and cultural fit Washington’s Trent McDuffie would be for what Smith and Nick Caserio are trying to build in Houston.
• We mentioned in the MMQB column that Giants WR Kadarius Toney would probably show up for this week’s voluntary work in East Rutherford—and on Monday morning he did. So what are the next steps? My understanding is that GM Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll want to get to know him before doing anything else.
And yes, teams did call, in large part because Toney didn’t show up for the start of the program, and because there’s no harm in asking.
But I don’t get the sense that Schoen or Daboll are at all motivated to move him. In fact, as I’ve heard it, they love the idea of being able to creatively play Saquon Barkley and Toney off each other in Daboll’s diverse offensive scheme.
• With the possibility that the quarterbacks all tumble into the back half of the first round, I’m reminded of a point an exec from a team that doesn’t need one this year made to me: “I think the best play this year is to draft Sam Howell on Day 2.”
It’s a fascinating idea in what’s widely seen a rugged year at the position. Howell does have some high-end traits (vision, escapability, accuracy), just as he has some flaws. So if you grab between, say, the 40th and 60th picks, you’re throwing a dart at the board at the position. And throwing this one, A) doesn’t preclude you from taking a bigger swing next year or the year after and, B) could give you great, cost-controlled depth at the position if Howell doesn’t prove to be a great starter.
And, by the way, here’s my MMQB column from two weeks ago, in which I spoke to Howell about his time at UNC.
• And that brings us to one of my favorite under-the-radar, draft-related facts: QBs just don’t go in the second round. Over the last 10 drafts, 33 quarterbacks have been taken in the first round. Just 10 have gone in the second.
The reason? Well, my theory is that if you see a guy at that position as a long-term starter for you, then you take him in the first round. If not, maybe he’s a backup, and most teams feel the second round is too high to be taking guys who are backups. So who are the second-round quarterbacks? Here’s the list …
2021: Kyle Trask
2020: Jalen Hurts
2019: Drew Lock
2018: N/A
2017: DeShone Kizer
2016: Christian Hackenberg
2015: N/A
2014: Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo
2013: Geno Smith
2012: Brock Osweiler
And just outside that window, both Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick were hits for their teams in the 2011 draft, much more so than first-rounders Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert or Christian Ponder were for their team. In those cases, by the way, the Bengals and Raiders wound up getting Pro Bowlers (A.J. Green and Aldon Smith, respectively) by passing on taking a quarterback in the top 10. Similarly, the Raiders took Khalil Mack fourth overall before getting Carr in the second round in ’14.
Which could provide a pretty interesting lesson for teams trying to figure out when to take one this weekend.
• I’d believe 49ers GM John Lynch on what he said Monday about Deebo Samuel. As we said in the morning column, I think he’d have to be blown away by an offer to consider moving Samuel. And, again, by blown away, I mean I think it’d probably take multiple first-rounders for him to entertain it.
That’s just my take. We’ll see what happens between now and Thursday.
