It is easy to predict where the energy regulator will set the next quarterly price cap on Wednesday. It’s just a matter of tracking wholesale prices in Ofgem’s relevant backward-looking “observation period”. Energy consultant Cornwall Insight thinks the typical household bill be £1,850, an increase of £209 from the previous quarter. It will be surprising if it is out by more than a few quid.
One can also make a fair guess at the regulator’s messaging. It will talk about the unavoidable impact from the surge in energy prices that followed the closure of the strait of Hormuz. It may also say the increase would be even greater than 13% without the additional wind and solar generation on the system these days. Fair enough. Gas sets the wholesale price of electricity only 60% of the time now, down from 90% not long ago.
