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Wales Online
Wales Online
National
Richard Ault

Odds on Boris Johnson making a remarkable political comeback

Many believe Boris Johnson will one day return to 10 Downing Street - but no other post-war Prime Minister has succeeded in climbing back to the top of the “greasy pole” after quitting. In his leaving speech outside Number 10, Mr Johnson referred to the Roman statesman and military leader Lucious Quinctius Cincinnatus, saying that “like Cincinnatus, I am returning to my plough”.

But while Cincinnatus did indeed return to his plough - moving to a small farm after resigning as Consul of Rome in 460BC - he later returned to rule Rome as dictator. That has led some political commentators and supporters to believe Mr Johnson was signalling his intention to one day return to the highest office in the UK.

Of 16 Prime Ministers to take office since the end of the Second World War, 10 have resigned mid-term between elections, including Mr Johnson and both his Tory party predecessors, Theresa May and David Cameron. Not one has so far succeeded in returning to power. But if Mr Johnson is looking for inspiration from the past he doesn’t need to look back quite as far as the days of Cincinnatus.

Conservative Prime Minister Stanley Baldwin resigned from office in January 1924 but was back in Number 10 just nine months later. However, Mr Baldwin resigned with his entire government after failing to secure a majority at the 1923 general election. He then won the next election called soon after by his successor, Labour’s Ramsay MacDonald, who had also failed to secure a majority.

In contrast, Mr Johnson resigned not because “they changed the rules halfway through” - as he claimed in his leaving speech - but because he lost the support of his own MPs. More than 50 called for him to go after running out of patience following a series of scandals and controversies.

Ms Truss now becomes the 16th Prime Minister to enter Downing Street in the post-war era and the 77th to take office since Sir Robert Walpole in 1721, who is recognised as Britain’s first PM. But while returning to the highest office after resigning is rare, it is not that uncommon for an ex-Prime Minister to make a comeback after losing an election.

So far, 15 Prime Ministers - about one in five since 1721 (19%) - have suffered the rejection of the electorate only to restore trust to such an extent that they were able to march back through the doors of Number 10 following a subsequent election triumph. And rather than looking to Cincinnatus, Mr Johnson might do better to study the life of Liberal Prime Minister William Ewart Gladstone, who holds the record for the most successful comebacks.

Mr Gladstone was first elected as PM in 1868 but lost to his arch-rival Benjamin Disraeli (Conservative) in the elections of 1874, who coined the phrase “I have climbed to the top of the greasy pole”. But Mr Gladstone returned to win in 1880, serving until his resignation in 1885, prompted after his budget was defeated.

He was back in Number 10 the following year, but lost the next general election in 1886, only to return to the highest office once more in 1892, serving until 1894, when he resigned for a second and final time after losing the support of his cabinet.

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