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Grant Duncan, Research Associate, Public Policy Institute, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

NZ’s next government could be a four-party coalition. Get used to the new normal

Going by recent opinion polls, the combined votes of National and Labour in the coming election may be the lowest ever – below 60%.

This might be a temporary dip, and the familiar National-Labour pendulum may swing back in future elections. Or it could signal a long-term trend. Results below 30%, or even 25%, will become normal for both.

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