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Barchart
Sohini Mondal

NVR Stock: Is NVR Underperforming the Consumer Cyclical Sector?

With a market cap of $16.7 billion, NVR, Inc. (NVR) is a leading company operating through two primary business segments: homebuilding and mortgage banking. Its homebuilding segment constructs and sells homes under the Ryan Homes, NVHomes, and Heartland Homes brands.

Companies valued at $10 billion or more are generally considered “large-cap” stocks, and NVR fits this criterion perfectly. The company serves customers across 37 metropolitan areas in 16 states and Washington, D.C.

Shares of the Reston, Virginia-based company have fallen 25.8% from its 52-week high of $8,429.99. The stock has decreased 1.2% over the past three months, a less pronounced decline than the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF’s (XLY) 6.2% dip over the same time frame.

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NVR stock is down 14.2% on a YTD basis, a steeper decline than XLY’s 6.9% drop. In the longer term, shares of the homebuilder have fallen 24.4% over the past 52 weeks, compared to XLY’s 8.2% decline over the same time frame.

Despite a few fluctuations, the stock has been trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages since last year.

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NVR shares fell 3.1% on Jul. 23 due to weaker-than-expected Q2 2026 EPS of $83.96 and Homebuilding revenue of $2.28 billion fell 10.5% year-over-year. Results were pressured by 8% fewer settlements, a 3% decline in average settlement price to $450,700, and Homebuilding gross margin compression to 19.2%, reflecting higher lot costs, affordability challenges and $21.7 million of land-deposit impairments. Although net new orders rose 9% to 5,885 units and backlog increased 9% to 10,998 units, the 5% decline in new-order ASP to $437,100 and weaker mortgage activity reinforced concerns.

In comparison, rival D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) has shown a smaller decline than NVR stock. DHI stock has decreased 2.6% on a YTD basis and 18.3% over the past 52 weeks.

Despite the stock’s underperformance over the past year, analysts remain moderately optimistic on NVR. The stock has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” from the eight analysts in coverage, and the mean price target of $6,912.71 is a premium of 10.5% to current levels.

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