The number of pupils at London primary schools is falling twice as quickly as the national average as parents are forced out of the capital by spiraling costs.
There is expected to be another drop of around 52,000 primary school-aged children in the city by 2028, according to the Education Policy Institute (EPI).
Birth rates have been falling across the country, but the decrease has been particularly exacerbated in the capital by the price of housing and the cost of living.
Central London boroughs such as Westminster, Southwark and Camden, have all had primary pupil number falls of greater than 10 per cent, the EPI told the Today programme.
Louis Hodge, the associate director from EPI, told the BBC: “In the whole of London, we’re expecting primary school pupil numbers to fall by another 52,000 by 2028.
“And we’re also now expecting that trend to occur in other parts of the country but at a slower rate.
“The national picture is pupil numbers at primary have been falling, more so in London than the rest of England, but pupil numbers at secondary have been rising in almost all local authorities in England.
“That’s going to take a peak and turn a corner in the next five years or so. In London, in certain areas, we’re expecting to see falls in secondary as those falling numbers at primary school work their way through the system.”
Lower pupil numbers has a knock on effect to school budgets prompting concerns about education standards.
Children in the city get the best exam results in the country, but schools could be forced to make cuts such as narrowing the curriculum or slashing the number of teachers and teaching assistants.
London Councils has previously warned that institutions are facing “extremely difficult decisions” as they grapple with the impact of the drop in the birth rate.
A number have already closed down, including the 300-year-old Archbishop Tenison’s School in Oval, Raine's Foundation School in Tower Hamlets and Carlton Primary School in Camden.
Others will merge despite protests from parents, including Colvestone Primary in Hackney.
There are fears that school closures will create “ghost areas” across London as communities are destroyed by the number of families leaving the capital.
These areas are populated by workers and students but deserted at weekends, and there are fears they will spread out from the centre of the city to more areas.
The drop in demand for school places in London has been caused by a “perfect storm” of factors, which includes a fall in the birth rate as well as Brexit, the pandemic, the cost-of-living crisis and lack of affordable housing.
A Department for Education spokeswoman said: “We have increased school funding to almost £61.8bn this year, which will help to break down barriers to opportunity and improve the life chances of all children.
“We have also committed to rolling out 3,000 school-based nurseries by repurposing empty primary school classrooms so we can offer more childcare places to parents by building capacity in the system.”
