European doubts about deterrence predate the current US administration. Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and its growing reliance on nuclear coercion to ward off Nato support, brought the importance of nuclear weapons to the foreground again for the first time since the cold war.
Even after the invasion, the US continued to prioritise the Indo-Pacific. It questioned the sufficiency of its nuclear arsenal as China’s weapon stockpile grew and delivery systems improved.
A bipartisan US congressional commission concluded that the Chinese and Russian arsenals should be seen as a joint “two-nuclear-peer” problem, with North Korea an additional disrupting presence.
