The Northern Territory now has Australia's highest rate of COVID-related hospitalisations per capita, with a rate nearly double the figure seen during New South Wales's coronavirus peak.
Deakin University chair of epidemiology Catherine Bennett said at NSW's peak, the state had roughly 3.5 patients hospitalised with coronavirus per 10,000 residents.
By comparison, she calculated the NT now had roughly 6.32 COVID-related hospitalisations per 10,000 people.
Professor Bennett said the territory's high hospitalisation wasn't altogether surprising, considering many people in the NT had a "high risk profile".
“A greater number of people with complex health conditions are more likely to be treated in hospital as a precaution," she said.
Professor Bennett said coronavirus also "exacerbated" pre-existing health conditions, which meant many patients who already unwell were admitted to hospital for early treatment to prevent severe COVID-19 disease or for close monitoring.
There are now 156 COVID-positive patients in hospitals across the NT, most of whom are being treated at Royal Darwin Hospital.
The territory has recorded five coronavirus-related deaths to date, three of which have been announced in the past week.
Health conditions 'driving' high hospitalisation rates
Pre-pandemic, the NT had Australia's highest rate of potentially preventable hospitalisations.
It also has the highest percentage of adults with type 2 diabetes and the nation's highest hospitalisation rate for dialysis.
About 30 per cent of the NT's population are Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander people, a cohort which is at higher risk of severe disease or death from COVID-19.
Griffith University Professor of Infectious Diseases Nigel McMillan said, considering these risk factors, the territory was "always going to have had a higher hospitalisation rate".
"With the Northern Territory, there really is a population bias in terms of your population and some of the risk factors we know are associated with COVID," Professor McMillan said.
"Issues around kidney function, obesity, diabetes: these are all risk factors make people end up in hospital.
"It's the prevalence of health conditions that's really driving that hospitalisation rates."
Aboriginal health bodies say the NT's health system will not be able to cope with the growing number of hospitalisations: a suggestion the territory government has rebuffed.
Concerns have also raised about the ability of Royal Darwin Hospital, the NT's largest facility, to manage the growing numbers: given it was forced to call four code yellows last year with no COVID outbreak adding pressure.
NT's hospitalisation rate tipped to grow this week
On Monday, Deputy Chief Minister Nicole Manison said the NT was currently experiencing the peak of its Omicron outbreak and authorities expected the number of patients in hospital with coronavirus to grow in the coming week.
Griffith University Professor of Infectious Diseases Nigel McMillan agreed the NT would see more people hospitalised soon, because people who needed hospital-level care typically presented seven and 10 days after their initial positive test result.
"If we look at the Queensland data, the peak was on the 17th [of January] for cases, and the peak for hospitalisations was on the 25th [of January]," Professor McMillan explained.
"Generally, seven to 10 days after cases you'll see hospitalisations."
Professor McMillan predicted case numbers and hospitalisations in the NT would start to drop off by the end of March.
Professor Bennett expected this downward tick of hospitalisations could happen even faster, potentially "in the next couple of weeks", but said this would depend on how long the patients currently in hospital needed to stay.
"As soon as your case numbers plateau, then in a week or so, you should see the hospital numbers [decrease]," she said.
The NT's seven-day average case number is sitting at just over 1,000 with roughly 7,370 active cases.
