The evidence is firming up that at least one state — New South Wales — has reached its hospitalisation peak for this wave of the pandemic.
It comes as new figures show the overall burden on the health system is lower than scenario modelling released by the government at the start of the year.
The silver lining to a deadly week in NSW also gives us some hints about when other states might reach a peak in the Omicron wave, while case numbers remain tricky to interpret.
The way Australia measures case numbers has changed dramatically in the past month, which means we don't know how much of the drop in case numbers we're seeing is just the effect of a different testing regime.
Improving hospital patient figures are our clearest indication for now that a wave is starting to subside.
And in NSW, admissions are clearly slowing down.
A fortnight ago, the number of COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals was growing by more than 120 a day.
But since then, the trend has flattened and reversed, accelerating in the second half of this week.
The pattern is very similar for intensive care admissions.
In short, it is becoming increasingly likely that even if the total number of admitted patients jumps about in the days ahead, NSW is on the other side of this wave.
Staff shortages ease
The downturn in admissions comes at the same time as more health care workers become available to care for the ill in NSW.
The shortages and gaps created by staff needing to isolate due to COVID-19 exposure look to have stopped worsening, at least for now.
The number of furloughed staff had been rising rapidly since early December, but in the most recent week we have data for, there has been a small reduction.
That may be in part due to changed isolation protocols for symptomless health care workers introduced this month.
"That all gives us a sense that the spread of COVID is slowing and it is pleasing to see and I want to thank the community and acknowledge the actions of everyone in contributing to that," NSW Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant said on Friday.
"However, we will still expect to see high death numbers reported over the coming weeks."
That peak has had a serious impact on the state's health system which will likely continue for weeks to come — but thankfully the state has avoided the worst of the government's predictions.
In early January, the government published its projections need for hospital beds for COVID patients.
The modelling included three scenarios: One resembling what occurred in South Africa and London, one based on the New York experience with Omicron, and one that health officials thought was calibrated for NSW.
All scenarios look to have overestimated the impact, with the state's experience most closely following South Africa and London.
When will other states peak?
With NSW ahead of the other states on this wave, the state's figures are a reasonable guide for what's to come elsewhere.
In Victoria, total hospitalisations are bouncing about a bit more than in NSW, but the second half of this week has seen drops in total admissions on two days.
"There's a lot of uncertainty, but I do think that we're reasonably close to peak if we are not at peak already," Victoria's Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said early in the week.
And that is consistent with what we're seeing interstate and internationally.
"South Africa peaked in a reasonably short period of time, the UK looks to have peaked. Some states in the US, New York, New Jersey, look to be peaking with their case numbers," he said.
Other states and territories are confident that they, too, are nearing a peak in this wave.
"The ACT has likely now reached the peak of this outbreak and should start to see a decrease in case numbers in coming weeks," Andrew Barr said in a statement on Thursday afternoon.
The Queensland government is also expecting this wave to start receding within a week, starting on the Gold Coast before improving in Brisbane.
Growth in hospitalisations there has stopped accelerating, with the state now seeing roughly steady increases in overall admissions each day.
That could be a signal that Queensland has reached a point of inflection in the hospitalisation curve, with a slowing in admissions imminent.
Rather than a more gentle 'exit wave' authorities had predicted as Australia moved out of lockdowns, Omicron has flooded the nation with infections in a fast, tall wave.
With 750 deaths since the beginning of 2022, Omicron has tested Australia's preparedness like no other outbreak.
A Delta wave may well have lasted longer, with a smaller peak of daily cases and deaths (but not necessarily a smaller overall total), and less of a burden on the operation of the health system.
But even as this wave recedes, we know the virus will not be going for good, and experts will be looking at this data to see what can be improved ahead of the next surge.
