ABC election analyst Antony Green is tipping postal votes to play a significant role in the results of Saturday's by-elections in Bega and Monaro.
More than 17 per cent of voters in Monaro and 23 per cent of voters in Bega have cast early ballots.
But that is not enough to guarantee that the results in either seat will be known by Saturday night.
"You would have expected pre-poll voting to be much higher in the second week of the campaign, but it hasn't been," Green said.
"So it looks like people have got a postal vote and decided not to pre-poll vote.
Along with Bega and Monaro, voters will also go to the polls in the Sydney seats of Willoughby and Strathfield.
The by-elections were triggered by the resignations of Andrew Constance, John Barilaro, Gladys Berejiklian and Jodi McKay.
Ways to cast your vote
Early voting, postal voting and voting on the day are the options for voters.
Early voting closes tomorrow at 5:00pm and polls will be open from 8am to 6pm on Saturday, February 12.
It is not yet clear how many people decided to use the postal voting packs that were automatically sent out to every elector as a COVID-safe option.
They have to be filled out by tomorrow evening, but the NSW Electoral Commission says the count and final declaration of results will take longer than in previous elections due to the extended deadline of February 25 for the return of postal votes.
"The first vote count of postal votes will take place a week late on Saturday the 19th," Green said.
"They'll count everything that's been cast in person on Saturday night and finish it on Monday … but there won't be any postal vote counting until the Saturday after."
'Didn't we only just vote?'
The ABC South East NSW team visited Cooma this week to hear how Monaro voters were feeling about the campaign — but it was the first some had heard of it.
"I didn't know it was for this Saturday … I realised a few days ago," one anonymous voter said.
Another, Cody, said, "Didn't we only just vote like two weeks ago or a month ago?"
"I'll probably have a look into it tonight and make my vote on the weekend."
Green said the postal voting packs should have been a clear reminder that a by-election was underway, but suspected the timing was a factor.
"They would have all received a postal vote, so it surprises me that they don't know it's on," he said.
"A by-election certainly receives less publicity than a general election."
Who is going to win?
Bega is a safe Liberal seat at 6.9 per cent, while the Nationals hold the Monaro electorate at a safe margin of 11.6 per cent.
Antony Green believes both seats will swing slightly to Labor, but is unsure how much until the count is confirmed.
"What you'll expect to see on Saturday night is a swing against the government in probably all of these seats," he said.
"Bega is the more marginal seat.
"Monaro is a much larger margin — it will be interesting to see what the swings look like with the federal election coming up."
