The 2026 season is one of the most open in years. Defending minor premiers Canberra, ultra-consistent Cronulla, the fast-improving Dolphins and the sleeping giant in Canterbury are all tipped for a run at the top four. Just who will get there is one of many questions only 27 rounds of rugby league can answer.
Are the Panthers and Storm clubs of the past?
Both heavyweights were undone by the Broncos’ stirring finals run, but each of the NRL’s two modern benchmarks were left disappointed by their 2025 season. The Panthers started slowly and were clearly tested by years of key departures, while the Storm struggled with their defence for most of the season.
The head injury to Eli Katoa and departures of Nelson Asofa-Solomona and Ryan Papenhuyzen means Melbourne look very different in 2026. Local fullback Sua Fa’alogo has explosive speed but will be tested in his first full season in the No 1 jersey. The club has also been barred from signing Zac Lomax, a blow given the achilles injury to Xavier Coates. Watch out for mid-season recruiting moves given the club’s cap space.
By contrast, Penrith have had their most stable off-season since their dynasty began. Rather than lose big names, they have actually re-signed a former player in Jack Cogger – a key contributor in the 2023 grand final – who will provide depth in the spine. Key improvers are Blaize Talagi, the electric five-eighth who finally settled into Ivan Cleary’s side, and centre Casey McLean, who looks like the next iteration of Stephen Crichton.
How hard will departing Payne Haas be worked?
Michael Maguire saw the game’s best forward walk away from Brisbane within months of the taskmaster coach delivering the Broncos’ first premiership in 19 years. Haas has signed with Souths on a three-year contract that begins next season in bombshell off-season news.
This very-NRL dynamic means Maguire and his team will be hoping to defend their premiership as one of their most important players already has plans elsewhere for next season. Short and long-term goals between clubs and players are rarely aligned, but the Haas situation is especially sensitive.
The 26-year-old has played a mountain of minutes in his eight NRL seasons, and is one of the few middles that can complete 80 minutes at a high level. But he has increasingly managed knee, foot and back injuries in recent years.
Maguire, meanwhile, has a reputation as a demanding coach who demands physical sacrifice from his players. Haas averaged more than 63 minutes per match last year, and has already played 80 in the World Club Challenge defeat to Hull KR. Maguire will be under pressure to find the right recipe for Haas to spearhead his premiership assault, and afford him the rest he needs … or wants.
Is Daly Cherry-Evans still a major player?
Much is expected from a Roosters team led by Dally M-winning fullback James Tedesco, which finished 2025 strongly and is now boosted by headline off-season signings.
Blues hooker Reece Robson arriving in his prime gives them stability in the middle they have lacked for years, though the switch by Manly and Maroons great Cherry-Evans to the tricolours brings more risk.
Halfback Sam Walker is set to retain the keys to the team, leaving Cherry-Evans in an auxiliary role that leverages his experience and kicking. But the bloke turned 37 two weeks ago and fitting both Walker and Cherry-Evans in a side that already lent more towards attack than defence last season will be a puzzle for Trent Robinson.
Can the rugby league family behave, just for a few months?
A record-breaking TV deal is expected to be secured by the NRL in coming months, as negotiations with broadcasters over the next TV deal continue. Representatives of interested parties attended the start to the season in Las Vegas last weekend, including the global head of Dazn, Len Blavatnik.
Dazn bought Foxtel last year, though the company has been looking to cut costs within other sporting properties and there is no guarantee they have an appetite to invest in a provincial game. The NRL has talked up its global appeal in recent years, but in reality uplift in any deal will come from the level of competition between local players, and how much they are prepared to divvy up the rights including possibly multiple free-to-air partners.
Most agree the local appeal of the NRL remains strong, highlighted by a record grand final audience. But as the pens come out to sign a deal hoped to top $4bn, a slower-than-normal start to the season or the kinds of player indiscretions that make advertisers nervous could have a material impact on the game’s biggest revenue line item.
Who will win the Dally M lawyer of the year?
Apart from the Haas bombshell, rugby league’s major pre-season news story has been the legal dispute surrounding Lomax, and whether his former club Parramatta were entitled to play hard ball to prevent him signing for Melbourne.
Manly are involved in two ongoing court matters in relation to their treatment of players during gruelling pre-season training sessions, while the Bulldogs settled a separate matter with former player Jackson Topine last month.
Outside the courtroom, corporate law firms are salivating at the coming mountain of work around the next broadcast agreement. And once the deal is signed, negotiations will begin with players over a new collecting bargaining agreement due to begin in 2028.
Then there is the extensive work required to establish the Perth Bears in time for next season, and the even more challenging task of readying the PNG Chiefs. 2026 will be the year of the suits.
