Nottingham Forest saw their unbeaten Premier League run come to an end at Fulham on Saturday, but Steve Cooper ’s side remain in a positive position in the table.
The Reds are six points above the relegation zone, sitting in 14th place. And a supercomputer has crunched the numbers and tipped them to retain their top-flight status.
The data experts at FiveThirtyEight are predicting a close-run race, though. A number of teams remain in a battle for survival.
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Next up for Forest is a visit from reigning champions Manchester City on Saturday (3pm kick-off). That game is followed by crucial fixtures against close rivals West Ham United (away) and Everton (home), with Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United making up the run to the next international break in mid-March.
FiveThirtyEight predict the Reds will finish in 17th place on 38 points come the end of the season, suggesting they will collect 14 points from their remaining 16 games. Southampton, Bournemouth and Everton are the clubs predicted to go down.
The outcome of the league is based on the FiveThirtyEight Soccer Power Index, which, they say, is “our best estimate of a team’s overall strength”. They add: “In our system, every team has an offensive rating that represents the number of goals it would be expected to score against an average team on a neutral field, and a defensive rating that represents the number of goals it would be expected to concede.
“These ratings, in turn, produce an overall SPI rating, which represents the percentage of available points - a win is worth three points, a tie worth one point, and a loss worth zero points - the team would be expected to take if that match were played over and over again.”
The data is updated after every round of fixtures, although it hasn't yet been updated to include Everton's derby defeat to Liverpool on Monday night. In September, for example, when Forest were struggling for form, the supercomputer had them down to finish 20th, with 30 points.
Predicted final Premier League table
1 Arsenal (82 points)
2 Manchester City (82 points)
3 Manchester United (72 points)
4 Newcastle United (66 points)
5 Tottenham Hotspur (64 points)
6 Brighton and Hove Albion (64 points)
7 Liverpool (62 points)
8 Chelsea (57 points)
9 Brentford (57 points)
10 Fulham (53 points)
11 Aston Villa (49 points)
12 Leicester City (45 points)
13 Crystal Palace (43 points)
14 West Ham United (41 points)
15 Wolverhampton Wanderers (41 points)
16 Leeds United (38 points)
17 Nottingham Forest (38 points)
18 Everton (33 points)
19 Bournemouth (32 points)
20 Southampton (30 points)
Where will Forest finish in the table? Have your say in the comments below
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