It’s crunch time for Nottingham Forest’s survival hopes as they prepare for next Monday’s crucial clash with Southampton.
Having thrown away the potential for three points at Brentford on Saturday, the Reds now find themselves back in the bottom three. And with just four games left, they know it is must-win when the Saints visit the City Ground.
Already the tension is mounting, amid one of the tightest Premier League relegation battles in years. As the clock ticks towards the big match, here’s our look at the latest goings-on Trentside.
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Survival scrap
We are at that point in the season when permutations are being analysed, run-ins are being debated and bold predictions are being made. Just as much attention is being paid to how Forest’s rivals are getting on as how Steve Cooper’s side are faring.
Perhaps that says more about how the Reds are not making it easy for themselves. Such fine margins, but it’s difficult to avoid the thought that a win against the Bees would have represented a huge step towards safety.
Nevertheless, performances have certainly improved of late. The relegation race is still incredibly close, however, and is proving tough to call. Three teams are now on 30 points, while 19th-placed Everton are on 29.
Opta’s model suggests the Reds have a 46.6 percent chance of being relegated. On Sunday - after that defeat to the Bees, but before Leicester City and the Toffees drew - it was 46.3 percent.
Southampton are given a 98.3 percent chance of going down, Everton 68.6 percent (from 74 percent on Sunday), Leeds United 58.1 percent (previously 46.7 percent) and the Foxes 27.7 (previously 34.3 percent).
Fellow data experts Gracenote put Forest’s chances of relegation at 53 percent, according to the BBC. They have Leicester on 32 percent, Leeds on 58, Everton on 60 and the Saints on 98. As an aside, it is noted that Cooper has used 33 different players in the top-flight this season, more than any other team.
Marginal call
Cooper was fuming with the VAR decision on Josh Dasilva’s winner for Brentford at the Gtech Community Stadium. The visitors felt Yoane Wissa, standing in the eyeline of goalkeeper Keylor Navas, was in an offside position.
It certainly appeared marginal, but VAR Neil Swarbrick ruled for the goal to stand. The offside lines drawn on Wissa and Ryan Yates, who was marking him, overlapped and thus fell under VAR’s ‘margin of error’.
The Premier League state on their official website: “From the 2021/22 season, the process was tweaked as part of an adjustment to the implementation of VAR. Firstly, for marginal offside decisions, after the one-pixel lines are applied, the VAR puts on the thicker broadcast lines and where they overlap, those situations will now be deemed as onside.”
Forest may not have been able to do anything about that call, but they definitely need to cut out the individual errors which are proving so costly. The Daily Mail highlight how they have conceded 16 times in the final 15 minutes of games - more than anyone else in the league.
Impressing on loan
It has been a case of mixed fortunes for Forest players out on loan of late. Some are still fighting for promotion, while others have suffered the pain of relegation.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the MLS season is still in its early stages. Lewis O’Brien has quickly made an impact with DC United, while Richie Laryea was singled out for praise after the latest round of fixtures.
The latter was named in the MLSsoccer.com Team of the Matchday for Matchday 10. He caught the eye with what was described as a “moment of magic” between Laryea and CJ Sapong as New York City were toppled 1-0.
Laryea set up his teammate with a surging run down the right before crossing into the box. It was his fourth goal contribution of the year.
Bit of banter
Ordinarily, Portsmouth holding Derby County to a 1-1 draw might not be of great interest to Reds fans. Aside from the implications of it meaning a nervy final day for their bitter rivals’ bid to reach the League One play-offs, perhaps.
But a clip of Pompey goalscorer Colby Bishop has been doing the rounds on social media. It comes after he pulled out Brennan Johnson’s trademark bow and arrow celebration after finding the net against the Rams.
Asked about it afterwards, Bishop explained: “It’s just that I’m a Forest fan, mate. It’s just a bit of banter between friends!”
Doing the double
It has been some season for Forest Women. Andy Cook’s side have been in sensational form, and last weekend was another magical moment.
Having already clinched the FA Women's National League Cup, the Reds were crowned league champions thanks to their 3-0 victory over Stoke City. They sealed the National League Northern Premier Division title in style.
Next up is the play-off final, with the chance of promotion to the Championship. Forest will face the Southern Premier Division champions at Stadium MK on Saturday, May 20 - annoyingly, the same day as Steve Cooper’s team host Arsenal at the City Ground.
Will Forest stay up? Have your say in the comments below
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