Nottingham Forest are preparing for their Premier League return, 23 years after falling out of the top-flight in 1999.
No less than 30 managers have come and gone since then, but none have impressed or succeeded in their club's quest for promotion back to the big time like Steve Cooper. The 42-year-old will use every penny made available to him this summer from owner Evangelos Marinakis, who he is meeting in Athens to discuss plans for the window.
And Forest have been one of the busier clubs in the tranfer market. Union Berlin forward Taiwo Awoniyi was first through the door at the City Ground, and was swiftly followed by Moussa Niakhate, Giulian Biancone, Dean Henderson and Omar Richards.
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To replace Djed Spence, Liverpool right-back Neco Williams is set to join the club and when his deal is signed off, Forest would have spent over £60 million on those six new recruits. While it is unclear how much Forest will splash on new arrivals this summer, there is a need to not only strengthen, but replace players that left Cooper's squad from last season.
Forest recruited six players on loan last term, and the likes of Spence, Keinan Davis and James Garner made up an important part of Cooper's XI. Elsewhere, goalkeeper Brice Samba is expected to leave after contract talks have broken down and this summer represents wholesale change for Forest, at least in their first team.
Any side who achieves promotion to the Premier League will have to add quality, of that there is no doubt. However, if further additions must be made simply because of a lack of depth, as Aston Villa and Fulham have found out in recent years, it can be terminal for the club's chances of survival.
The Premier League is ruthless. Week in, week out, the margins for error are so slim and every point will count come May, so Cooper must recruit wisely, or else Forest's stay return to the Premier League will be short-lived. Unlike Fulham, Villa have shown how to remain a top-flight club and progress despite big changes. Granted, there's a lot of money involved, but Forest knew they'd have to break their previous transfer record at least once this summer having taken in the riches that the play-offs provide.
In fact, Forest's ascent up the Championship and through the play-offs almost mirrors Villa's path back to the Premier League. And while the Reds will likely not spend over £120m this summer, like Villa did, they don't have as many holes to fill in the team.
Replacing key loanees Tammy Abraham and Axel Tuanzebe was never going to be easy for Villa, and certainly at a cost. In the summer of 2019, they lost six players with contracts expiring and another 13 left on loan or permanent deals back to the division they’d helped Villa escape from – there was a lot of business to be done.
Villa, like Fulham the year before, spent over £100m to bulk up a thin squad that was not only in need of quality and experience, but after losing over half the players in Villa’s promotion bid, Dean Smith was keen to identify suitable replacements. In contrast to Fulham’s spending a year before, Villa were looking to make cut-price deals with a number of positions requiring improvements. On average, Villa spent just £11m per player, with Tyrone Mings returning after a loan deal and Wesley making up the two most expensive signings.
Promotion to the Premier League can often leave a club with a summer of rebuilding and often restructuring, and any side that comes up via the play-offs is at a disadvantage compared to their league rivals having missed a fortnight of pre-season preparations and transfer negotiations. Where Villa didn't compare to Fulham’s spending in 2018, is that the players recruited were brought in on deals that, on the whole, represented good value, with high resale values, or at least at a price that minimises risk of losses. Villa’s spending was also necessary to build a squad, without rendering Smith’s blueprint and tactical strategies useless.
Fulham cast aside Slavisa Jokanovic's hard work in a very impressive promotion campaign in 2018, where their play-off final victory of Villa was eventually undone by discarding a system in hope for some ‘moneyball’ success. Head coach Smith was backed all season, not only financially but through thick and thin, something Fulham couldn’t offer Jokanovic. This allowed players like Douglas Luiz and Ezri Konsa to develop over the course of the season due to familiarity to systems and tactics - because Smith was able concentrate on his job, the players too have their best chance of finding success at Villa Park.
Now, as the club attempts to challenge for Europe, Villa are out to move on another gear with their recruitment, but Forest must take it one step at a time. There's also no glossing over Villa's struggles throughout the 2019/20 season, after they survived on the final day.
They also had the immense talent of Jack Grealish. Much like Brennan Johnson, the boyhood fan galvanised the club's bid for promotion and if Forest are to remain a Premier League side, Johnson will have to adapt quickly. There's no reason why he won't, but Cooper will have to play to Johnson's strengths and supplement the team to give the winger his best opportunity to shine.
Johnson will be integral for Forest's chances of remaining in the Premier League next season, like Grealish was for Villa. But Cooper knows that recruitment and savvy dealing in the market will also go a long way to boosting those chances.
Who else should Forest target this summer? Tell us in the comments section...
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