Bears fans wondering whether their quarterback situation could get worse will try to comfort themselves Sunday at Soldier Field by looking at the other sideline.
They might have a point.
Had the former decision-makers at Halas Hall gotten their way, Russell Wilson would be in his third season wearing the wishbone-C on his helmet. Short-term, the Bears would have been marginally better for it — but not enough to contend for a championship. Long-term, it would have been crippling.
Thank God for unanswered prayers. And trade offers gone unanswered. And quarter-billion-dollar contacts not signed.
Former Bears general manager Ryan Pace traveled to Fargo, N.D., in March 2021 to watch North Dakota State quarterback Trey Lance’s pro day. He huddled with Seahawks general manager John Schneider and made him a trade offer for Wilson, who had been agitating for a trade.
Pace’s pitch: the Bears would send the Seahawks three first-round picks, including the No. 20 overall selection, plus a third-rounder and veteran players to help offset Wilson’s contract. The Seahawks needed to give Pace an answer by St. Patrick’s Day, the start of the league season.
The Bears knew Wilson was open to joining the Bears — his agent named them among the four teams he’d be willing to join. But they also knew investing in him would go beyond the draft picks dealt to the Seahawks. Any deal for Wilson would eventually lead to his new team signing him to one of the richest contracts in league history.
Schneider took the offer back to Seattle, where Pete Carroll — the oldest coach in the NFL —decided he didn’t want to part with his quarterback. The Seahawks said no. The Bears signed Andy Dalton to a free-agent deal and later traded up from No. 20 to draft Ohio State quarterback Fields.
The Seahawks put off their quarterback decision a year before deciding to deal Wilson —coming off his worst passer rating in four years — to the Broncos for two first-round picks, two second-round choices, a fifth-round pick and three veterans. The Broncos got a fourth-round pick back.
It’s been a disaster.
Before he ever played a snap, the Broncos agreed to give Wilson a five-year, $242.6 million deal with $161 million guaranteed. Wilson’s decline accelerated immediately, leaving him with perhaps the most untradeable contract in American pro sports.
Wilson drew the ire of some of his new teammates last year when he brought his personal support into the Broncos’ facility. He even had his own office in the building, as if he were an executive.
He was Pro Football Focus’ 27th-best quarterback last year. The Broncos had won four games all year when coach Nathaniel Hackett was fired after a 51-14 loss to the Rams on Christmas Day. At the time, the Broncos were averaging 15.5 points, the fewest in franchise history since 1966.
There’s no easy way out. To cut Wilson before this season would have cost the Broncos a staggering $107 million in dead cap space. To do so this offseason would cost them $85 million; in the spring of 2025, it’d be $49.6 million. The Broncos could break up Wilson’s dead cap hold into two different seasons by designating him a post-June 1 release, but even then it’d be prohibitive. No one in NFL history has ever been cut for more than the $40.5 million the Falcons paid when they dealt Matt Ryan to the Colts before the 2022 season.
Wilson has been better this year. His 99.5 passer rating is seventh in the NFL this season; take away a 50-yard Hail Mary at the end of the team’s two-point loss to the Commanders, though, and he’d rank 14th.
The Bears’ own quarterback has been among the worst in the NFL this season — Fields should be thankful for the Jets’ Zach Wilson and the Panthers’ Bryce Young, though the rookie is expected to get better. But at least he’s cheap — Fields’ four-year rookie deal pays $18.8 million, or about nine games’ worth of Wilson’s guaranteed salary.
The Bears don’t have to be tied to Fields beyond next season — and through three games, it’s trending that way. How Fields fares against a weak Broncos defense could send him careening even faster toward a departure.
It would take quite the turnaround for the Bears to consider giving Fields a big-money contract extension when he’s first eligible this offseason. Doing so comes with risks that can hamstring a franchise for years, though. The proof will be standing on the opposite sideline Sunday, in the stadium that at one point could have been his home.
Tale of the tape
Here’s how Justin Fields has compared to the Broncos’ Russell Wilson since 2021, the start of Fields’ NFL career and the season after the Bears failed to trade for the then-Broncos quarterback. The NFL ranking is based on the 29 quarterbacks to play at least 400 snaps during that time:
Category/Fields/Wilson
Passing yards/4,638 (last)/7,428 (16)
Completion percentage/59.5 (last)/62.7 (16)
Touchdown passes/27 (last)/47 (13)
Passer rating/78.1 (last)/93.6 (16)
Interception percentage/3.7 (last)/1.9 (10)
Sacked/104 (most)/98 (second-most)
Rushing yards/1,644 (3)/517 (9)
Rushing TDs/11 (3)/5 (11)
Wins/5 (last)/10 (fifth-fewest)
