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The so-called “Nostradamus of polling” has said that an October surprise wouldn’t change his prediction that Donald Trump will lose to Kamala Harris in the 2024 election.
Historian Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted the result of nine out of 10 presidential elections since 1984, said the October surprise – an unexpected revelation or scandal in the month before voters go to the polls – is “a myth.”
“One of the greatest myths of American politics is the October surprise,” Lichtman told CNN’s Michael Smerconish on SiriusXM.
“I have never changed my prediction in response to an October surprise because the keys gauged the big picture of incumbent governance in strength and don’t sway by the events of the campaign.”
Lichtman’s theory around the October surprise was proven right in 2016 when he predicted Trump would win the election.
That October – one month before the election – Trump’s shocking comments about women in the Access Hollywood tape came to light.
“I don’t even wait. And when you’re a star, they let you do it. You can do anything… Grab ’em by the p***y. You can do anything,” he says in the tape, obtained by The Washington Post. The 2016 October surprise did not change the result with Trump going on to win.
Lichtman, who shares his analysis on his YouTube channel, predicted last month that Harris will win the election this November.
Lichtman’s method for forecasting the race so accurately is known as “The Keys to the White House”, a system he devised with the Russian academic Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981.
Their method examines the state of the nation and the incumbent party in an election year to determine whether its candidate will come out on top once again in November or whether there is sufficient discontent among voters to allow a rival to pip them at the post.
Lichtman’s approach looks at 13 factors, from the president’s party’s standing in the House of Representatives to the health of the domestic economy, any record of scandal, social unrest, or foreign policy disasters during their tenure, and the comparative charisma of the two candidates, to decide the victor, applying “true” or “false” designations to each category.
If the administration in power achieves six or more “true” gradings, its candidate is expected to win – any fewer and their challenger is likely to come out on top.
In an explanatory video for the New York Times last month, the professor said that eight of the 13 keys currently yield “true” answers, suggesting a Harris triumph and another four years in power for the Democrats.
“Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip,” Lichtman said.
“The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys flipped ‘false’, that would mean that there were only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to regain the White House.”
Lichtman was asked by Fox 5 Washington DC whether anything could yet alter Trump’s fortunes.
“Not since the [American] Civil War has anything in the last 30 days changed a call… Does that mean it’s impossible? I’m not so arrogant to say, you know, nothing can change in history,” he responded.
Lichtman also said Tim Walz edged the win over JD Vance in last week’s vice presidential debate, grading the Republican a C minus and awarding the Democrat a B for their performances.
