Power-sharing in Northern Ireland is on the verge of being restored after a night of drama in Belfast. It would end an almost two-year power vacuum in the region after the Democratic Unionist party collapsed the Stormont government to protest against post-Brexit trading arrangements.
We have heard this before. What is different this time?
A new deal that centres on concessions made by London, not Brussels, was put to DUP executive members and debated over five hours, with an announcement in the small hours of Tuesday morning that the party had endorsed the agreement brokered by its leader, Jeffrey Donaldson.
Donaldson told BBC radio on Tuesday that the deal – details of which the UK government will publish on Wednesday – would include “constitutional legislation” as well as practical arrangements. “The result was clear. The DUP has been decisive. I have been mandated to move forward,” Donaldson said.
What about the Windsor framework?
Agreement comes 11 months after Brussels made major concessions in replacing the original Northern Ireland protocol Brexit trading arrangements with the Windsor framework, in a deal sweetened by No 10, memorably, by a meeting between European Commission chief, Ursula von der Leyen, and King Charles.
That deal was hailed by Rishi Sunak and Von der Leyen as the breakthrough that would end the DUP’s boycott of Stormont.
So why didn’t the DUP return to Stormont in February 2023?
The DUP had argued that, even with the concessions by Brussels, the Windsor framework undermined Northern Ireland’s place in the UK, forcing traders to deal differently with the region.
How soon could Stormont resume?
Sinn Féin’s Conor Murphy has said he believes the executive could be back up and running “before the week is out”.
Pressure from the public has been mounting in recent weeks with an estimated 150,000 public sector workers in Northern Ireland on strike two weeks ago, the largest protest in more than 50 years. They had not received pay increases despite high inflation following the collapse of the power-sharing government.
Northern Ireland’s health service is routinely ranked as the worst in the UK with long waiting lists and poor health outcomes. The government made a £3.3bn financial package – that included pay rises for public sector workers – conditional on Stormont’s revival.
What is in the deal?
Donaldson said it would end “dynamic alignment” whereby future changes in EU law would have to be observed in Northern Ireland.
Pending the deal’s publication on Wednesday, it appears that Sunak has offered to keep Great Britain (England, Wales and Scotland) aligned with European standards if the DUP returned to Stormont.
All new laws at Westminster would be checked to ensure they did not compromise unfettered trade with Northern Ireland, meaning no separate rules or labels for goods that remain in the region.
Does that mean the UK will remain closer to Brussels?
It appears that the deal is a dusting down of proposals Theresa May made in 2019 to align rules for Ireland with those in the UK, thereby removing the need for what because known as the Brexit sea border.
This compromise was rejected by the Conservatives, whose policies were then shaped by convulsions about sovereignty, taking back control of British law and a clean break Brexit.
Will the hard Brexiters be able to kill the deal?
Liz Truss, Priti Patel and Iain Duncan Smith opposed the Windsor framework last March, arguing that the Stormont brake, the mechanism by which the Belfast executive could block new EU laws applying locally, was not substantial enough.
How can Sunak sell this?
He can argue that the alignment with EU law is limited and applies to goods and farm produce and not wider issues such as the rule of law and other national competencies such as health, education, security, justice.
What will this mean for a potential Labour government?
It could make it easier for Keir Starmer to strike a veterinary agreement with the EU, which would dynamically align foods standards with EU standards, paving the way for fewer trade barriers between the UK and the EU as a whole.
