The terrorism threat level in Northern Ireland has been increased from substantial to severe, meaning an attack is highly likely.
In a written statement to MPs, the Northern Ireland secretary, Chris Heaton-Harris, said MI5 had increased the threat to the country from Northern Ireland-related terrorism and the public should remain vigilant but not be alarmed.
The move by the Security Service comes a month after the senior police officer John Caldwell was shot by masked gunmen in Omagh, County Tyrone. The detective chief inspector is understood to be in a critical but stable condition in hospital after he was shot while he packed footballs into his car alongside his son after a football training session. Thirteen arrests have been made in connection with the attempted murder and dissident republicans have been blamed for the attack.
In his statement, Heaton-Harris said: “Over the last 25 years, Northern Ireland has transformed into a peaceful society. The Belfast (Good Friday) agreement demonstrates how peaceful and democratic politics improve society. However, a small number of people remain determined to cause harm to our communities through acts of politically motivated violence.
“In recent months, we have seen an increase in levels of activity relating to Northern Ireland-related terrorism, which has targeted police officers serving their communities and also put at risk the lives of children and other members of the public. These attacks have no support, as demonstrated by the reaction to the abhorrent attempted murder of DCI Caldwell.”
Threat levels are designed to give a broad indication of the likelihood of a terrorist attack. MI5 is responsible for setting the threat level from Northern Irish-related terrorism in Northern Ireland, while the threat level for the UK from international terrorism is set by the Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre.
The threat to the UK from terrorism is substantial, meaning an attack is likely.
The raising of the terrorism threat level in Northern Ireland comes just a year after it was lowered for the first time in 12 years.
The New IRA has claimed responsibility for the attack on Caldwell, as well as an attempt to kill two police officers with a bomb in Strabane last November.
The group has been most active of the dissident republican outfits in Northern Ireland in recent years. It is believed to be the largest of the dissident republican groups and has been linked to a number of murders including those of the journalist and author Lyra McKee in 2019, PC Ronan Kerr in 2011 and the prison officers David Black and Adrian Ismay in 2012 and 2016 respectively.
It is believed to have been formed between 2011 and 2012 after the merger of a number of smaller groups, including the Real IRA – the group behind the 1998 Omagh bomb. The group is strongest in Derry and Strabane, though also has a presence in Belfast, and other pockets in County Tyrone and Lurgan in County Armagh.
Earlier this month, Arm na Poblachta (Army of the Republic) said police officers’ families would be considered targets. It is a smaller dissident group that emerged in 2017 but has not been as active.
Simon Byrne, the chief constable of the Police Service of Northern Ireland, said: “This is part of an ongoing process of monitoring the threat level in Northern Ireland, which is conducted by MI5. We have spoken publicly about the number of attacks that have taken place in recent months, not least the attempted murder of DCI John Caldwell on 22 February.
“We will relentlessly pursue those who seek to cause harm and terrorise our communities, and attack my officers and staff, and I pay tribute to them as they continue to deliver for our communities. I would also like to thank the community and political leaders of Northern Ireland for their overwhelming support for the police service in recent times.”
The Democratic Unionist party leader, Jeffrey Donaldson, called on the UK government to fund more police officers in Northern Ireland.
“It is bad news for Northern Ireland when the risk of further attacks moves to ‘likely’ or ‘very likely’,” he said. “I look forward to a day when the threat level is removed but to get there the community must stand with the police and demonstrate there is no space for terrorism in Northern Ireland in 2023.
“The government made a commitment to help fund 7,500 officers in the PSNI but have not yet made good on that promise. With police officers facing such a threat, now is the time for the government to provide that additional funding to ensure the PSNI has the full capacity to meet this threat.”
Sinn Féin’s Stormont leader, Michelle O’Neill, said there was no place or space for paramilitary groups in a modern, democratic society, adding: “They must go.”
“Today’s announcement that the level of threat has been increased comes against the backdrop of the 25th anniversary of the signing of the Good Friday agreement,” she tweeted. “A quarter century on there is no place or space for paramilitary groups in a modern, democratic society. They must go.”
