The formation of a new executive at the Northern Ireland assembly could take up to six months, under laws designed to keep Stormont functioning in the event of a further crisis over Brexit.
However, there could be another election in early winter after the DUP made clear after the election results on Friday that it would not re-enter the executive without changes to the Northern Ireland protocol even if the final outcome were to put it top of the polls.
Amendments made to the Northern Ireland Act in February this year are aimed at preventing the assembly collapsing as it did in 2017 after a rift between Sinn Féin and the Democratic Unionist party. They give the elected representatives up to four six-week windows, 24 weeks in all, to select an executive, which sits like the cabinet at the top of the assembly.
Senior sources in the DUP say it cannot re-enter Stormont with checks on goods in the Irish Sea remaining and Boris Johnson needs to realise the damage they say it is doing to the Good Friday Agreement.
What happens next?
The assembly must meet within eight days of the election. Expect it to sit on Tuesday or Thursday next week.
The 90 elected members must then sign the register and declare whether they are unionist, nationalist or “other” under the power-sharing system in place.
Unlike Scotland or Wales or the UK national government – where the largest party can form a government – the Northern Ireland assembly requires a coalition of the two largest parties of different designations to form the devolved government.
It is a known as a “co-sociational” political system designed for countries with major internal divisions.
How is the next stage organised?
The party with the largest number of seats must nominate a first minister (FM) and the second largest party a deputy first minister (DFM). The posts are equal, despite the connotations of rank.
In the event of a tie in the number of seats won, the first minister post will go to the party with the most first-preference votes.
Any room for horse-trading?
Yes. Elected members can switch party up to the day they sign the register. Watch the DUP or Sinn Féin try to lure independents to their camp in the event that there are just one or two seats between them.
What happens then?
Once an FM and DFM are nominated, ministers are appointed through the so-called d’Hondt formula, which allocates department according to the relative weighting of each party in the election.
The justice minister is an exception and must be appointed with cross-community support.
The executive then drafts a programme for government and an associated budget, which must be approved by the assembly of elected members.
How long do they have?
Initially, the parties have six weeks from the day the assembly first meets to fill the ministerial posts.
What happens if one party decides not to appoint a deputy first minister?
A fresh crisis will ensue, but a partial executive can limp on for up to 24 weeks.
Initially, the members have six weeks to form an executive. The new Northern Ireland (ministers in departments, elections and petitions of concern) Act 2022 allows for three successive six-week extensions to that deadline.
The DUP has refused to give a commitment that it would nominate a deputy first minister if it was in second place. It has also indicated that it will not return to an executive without the removal of Irish Sea border checks.
But are there not laws in place to keep Stormont functioning?
Stormont collapsed in 2017 and power-sharing did not resume for three years. But that cannot happen this time.
Former Northern Ireland secretary Julian Smith, who shepherded through the New Decade New Approach deal, also paved the way for the new laws to ensure parties continued to govern despite their differences.
Can decisions be made if there is no first minister or deputy first minister?
Other ministers can be appointed, but their powers will be limited.
Lisa Whitten, research fellow at Queen’s University and a member of the UK in a Changing Europe thinktank, said the amended act “provides a safety net” as “existing policies can continue”, but warned that, as new decisions “on critical issues such as a budget or health reforms” cannot be made, “there is still plenty of scope for stagnation”.
What happens if there is no fully functioning executive after 24 weeks?
The ministers in place would lose their office and the Northern Ireland secretary would be legally obliged under the Northern Ireland Act to name a date for a second election. That election has to take place within 12 weeks of that announcement.
