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The Conversation
The Conversation
Ignacio López-Goñi, Catedrático de Microbiología. Miembro de la Sociedad Española de Microbiología (SEM), Universidad de Navarra

No, we’re not ‘one mutation away’ from an H5N1 bird flu pandemic – here are the facts

3D recreation of the avian influenza H5N1 virus. Corona Borealis Studio/Shutterstock

In early December 2024, a group of researchers published an article in the journal Science, entitled “A single mutation in bovine influenza H5N1 hemagglutinin switches specificity to human receptors”. Some media outlets somewhat exaggeratedly took this to mean that we are one mutation away from bird flu “becoming the next COVID”.

There are currently no documented cases of human to human transmission of bird flu, also known as avian flu H5N1, though there is concern that the virus, which has spread among farm cows in the US, may mutate and spread to humans, leading to a flu pandemic.

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