WASHINGTON – Georgia’s all-important U.S. Senate races are set to enter a murky phase, as the campaigns expect to cede attention to the holidays in the final weeks before an unconventional Election Day in early January.
With early in-person voting underway, members of both parties are continually tracking tight contests, privately acknowledging that the outcomes could vary widely from narrow wins by Democratic challengers Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock to substantial victories by incumbent GOP Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler.
The unusual timing of the Jan. 5 elections, paired with concerns about polling accuracy following misfires in some November races, is creating a cloud of uncertainty during the critical final stretch. The national ramifications add another complicating layer: Never have two simultaneous runoff elections decided the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.
“No one actually knows what’s going to happen. Anyone telling you anything confidently is probably full of it,” said one Democratic aide involved in plotting the party’s strategy. “We believe both races are close, but I wouldn’t be shocked if both end up 8-point races on Election Day.”
Republicans believe they are running marginally ahead in both contests and see Democrats’ early vote performance tracking behind the advantage they built at a comparable point leading up to last month’s general election. They now estimate total spending to surpass $600 million, a colossal sum that has left Georgia oversaturated with political ads.
“It’s harder to move numbers because there’s so much clutter,” said a Republican consultant involved in one of the races. “People are getting slammed at the doors, on their mobile phones. You can’t turn on the radio. Your mailboxes are full with three or four pieces. Your phone is ringing off the hook.”
The consultant, who requested anonymity to discuss strategy, said Georgians are being asked to participate in more than a dozen polls a week. That has some strategists concerned that voter fatigue is likely to set in soon, if it hasn’t already.
Maryland Sen. Chris Van Hollen, the previous head of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said his party should not be focused on polling, no matter what it showed.
“It’s especially treacherous to do polling in a special election,” Van Hollen said. “Everyone should be focused on doing everything possible to turn out the vote.”
There’s also the X-factor no one can really predict: how President Donald Trump decides to conduct himself in his remaining days in office. Trump tweeted over the weekend that he would return for a rally on the Monday night before the election, after early voting has concluded.
Republicans will be closely monitoring the final week of early voting, which ends on New Year’s Day, to see if a last-minute visit from Trump is necessary to motivate his base. Traditionally, the final leg of early voting is the GOP’s strongest.
Meanwhile, Vice President-elect Kamala Harris is scheduled to campaign in the state for Ossoff and Warnock on Monday, to help rally more African Americans to the polls. If Black voters account for one-third of the total electorate in the runoffs, Republicans will have trouble retaining the seats.
The first wave of early voting figures suggest turnout will be robust, potentially on pace to top 4 million votes, which would be more than were cast during Georgia’s high-profile 2018 gubernatorial election. But it’s unclear which party that would help.
A Republican who has reviewed internal data said there is no significant intensity gap between the parties, making it precarious to read too much into early counts.
In addition, legal battles are already underway, injecting more unpredictability into the process. Democrats are filing suit against some counties for failing to provide adequate early voting dates, while Republicans are seeking to block voters who cast a ballot in another state in November from participating in Georgia’s runoffs.
If either of the races end up as close as President-elect Joe Biden’s 12,000-vote victory over Trump, more legal challenges are expected to pile up, potentially delaying the certification of winners, much like in the weeks after the November election.
Former Georgia Gov. Sonny Perdue, currently serving as Trump’s secretary of agriculture and campaigning for the GOP ticket, said all 76,000 of Georgia’s newly registered voters since the general election should be scrutinized.
“People who are coming here just for the purpose to vote for a second time to cast ballots in a second election, they should be found out,” Perdue said.
Asked if he had confidence in Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger to fairly administer the runoff election, Perdue said it was not for him to determine.
“Many people have questioned his motives,” Perdue said of Raffensberger. “I questioned some of the things he agreed to in the consent order. I believe he capitulated in some of those things … I hope there won’t be litigation, I hope the outcomes will be so clear there will be no need for litigation.”
