New Mexico vs. Nevada: Game Preview, How To Watch, Prediction & More
The Lobos head back home to put their winning momentum on the line.
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No. 25 New Mexico heads home to host Steve Alford & his Nevada Wolf Pack in Super Sunday Showdown.
WHO: No. 25 New Mexico (17-3, 5-2 in the MWC) vs. Nevada (16-4, 3-3 in the MWC)
WHEN: Sunday, January 28th, 8:00 PM MT/7:00 PM PT
WHERE: University Arena aka “The Pit”, Albuquerque, NM
TELEVISION: FS1
STREAM: FuboTV – Get a free trial
Line: KenPom ($), The Lobos are favored by 6 Points
A date circled on many Lobo fans calendars this time of year, the return of maybe their “winningest” Head Coach ever. A day that stirs up emotion among the New Mexico fan base, both good and bad. But another gameday to overcome nonetheless, regardless of who fills the opposing team’s bench.
Steve Alford left New Mexico for a dream job at one of college basketball’s blue chip gigs, UCLA. Fans understood why he left, but never truly forgave their former head coach. Lobo basketball since his departure has struggled to climb back to what is seen as their peak of the 21st century.
Because of that history, fans pack the pit when the other wolf team comes to town. Look no further than last season’s matchup, where 15,004 fans packed University Arena to witness one of the biggest buzzer beaters in Mountain West history. It was one of two Lobo losses last season resulting from a buzzer beater at home and one of two losses to the Wolf Pack last season.
In fact the last time a ranked Lobo team went up against Nevada was just a little over a year ago inside the Lawlor Events Center. The Wolf Pack added to the win column in Coach Alford’s record against his old employer. Which is perfectly intact at 8-0.
The Lobos will put their red hot momentum and top-25 ranking on the line Sunday night. As they prepare to host a team, like themselves, make opposing coaches hold their breath until the final buzzer sounds. New Mexico is coming home after a two-game road trip that resulted in convincing wins over Air Force & San Jose State.
Those are games the Lobos needed to win & couldn’t afford to lose, so give Richard Pitino and his group some credit for not fumbling those road wins. Maybe give more credit to their nationally renowned perimeter trio of Jaelen House, Jamal Mashburn Jr. & Donovan Dent who have led this New Mexico team to potentially their first NCAA Tournament trip since current Nevada Assistant Coach Craig Neal took them to ten years ago.
It really has been a team effort for the Lobos this season. Certainly led by that trio of guards but supported by stellar transfers & impactful freshman. New Mexico has slowly become the team national media were giving attention to in the offseason.
While Nevada is coming off of a 77-64 win against No. 24 ranked Colorado State on Wednesday. A much needed win that ended a three game losing streak for the Wolf Pack. A team like their hosts, are looking for an NCAA Tournament birth come March.
They are led by former transfers and now longtime Wolves Kenan Blackshear & Jarod Lucas. A perimeter duo who are making their last run around the Mountain West before running out of eligibility.
The guys over at Heat Check CBB have Nevada as one of the First Four Out in their most recent Bracketology release while other outlets have them as a Last Four In selection.
The path both of these teams have taken to Sunday’s matchup appear similar. Great non-conference performances, some tough losses but some high value “upsets” in conference play.
As the lone Sunday game of the entire Mountain West Conference slate, there will be eyeballs aplenty available to watch this clash of wolves.
Players to Watch:
F JT Toppin–New Mexico
23-24 Stats: 13.4 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 1.8 BPG & 1.2 SPG while shooting 66.3% from the floor in 25.0 MPG
Last time out: 14 points, 10 rebounds, 5 block on 5-11 (45%) shooting, including 4-5 (80%) from the line against San Jose State
If you haven’t gotten a chance to see a Lobo game this season, make time. New Mexico is a deep and talented team this year with leadership and true potential. With maybe JT Toppin having one of the more exciting freshman seasons since Kendall Williams well over a decade ago.
The 6-9 freshman four man is a site to see in the paint. Recently tying the record for most double-doubles by a freshman (7), previously held by Lobo legend & former NBA journeyman Kenny Thomas.
Toppin’s offensive game is primarily focused around the rim, with second chance layups & turnaround hook shots being his weapons of choice. Along with finishing in transition. While defensively he has active hands, which lead to opponent turnovers and those aforementioned dunks in transition. Big Lobo wins are usually accompanied by big Toppin nights, so they may need one from him in order to put away a team they haven’t beaten in a long time.
F Kenan Blackshear –Nevada
23-24 Stats: 16.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 4.9 APG while shooting 51.3% from the floor in 31.1 MPG
Last time out: 20 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists on 9-12 (75%) shooting against Colorado State
Blackshear’s name will live in infamy inside the heads of Lobo fans after his buzzer beating mid-range jumper inside the Pit last season. The true definition of a dagger that deflated an entire arena filled with fifteen thousand people in an instant.
Blackshear’s game is tough to stop. A 6’6 combo guard who often towers over his opponents on the perimeter. He has a deadly inside game, a 1.8 assist to turnover ratio but virtually no outside game.
An element of his game that you think would make him easier to guard or at least point to where on the floor opponents should push him towards, but it doesn’t. I don’t see Nevada securing the win without a big night from Blackshear.
Keys to the Game
For New Mexico: Force Turnovers, Get to the line & minimize fouls
The Lobos make their money in transition off of missed field goal attempts and more often turnovers. If you blink you’ll miss it, but New Mexico’s points off of turnovers are no joke. They’ll need plenty of those to avoid playing to one of Nevada’s strengths, which is getting to the line & knocking them down.
The Wolf Pack are ranked in the top-20 in the country in free throw attempts (14th) and makes (16th). The Lobos need to play smart and keep them off of the line Sunday night. A foul heavy night in Albuquerque could doom the Lobos. As that slows down the game and possibly takes away one of their own strengths/advantages.
By the same token, the Lobos need free throws of their own if three-point & mid-range jumpers aren’t falling, which they rarely do. It’s an odd mix but one New Mexico needs to find to secure the win.
For Nevada: Get to the line, Control the tempo & Crowd the Paint
The Lobos make plenty of their money at the line, but the Wolf Pack does it better. If Nevada can slow down the tempo and take New Mexico’s elite transition offense out of the game while getting to the free throw line at the same time. I can’t see a better reason to use the phrase, two birds with one stone in college basketball more than that exactly.
The Wolf Pack don’t necessarily have a dominant big man down low like say a Jaedon Ledee or Great Osobor. In my opinion that’s an advantage, because they won’t be as cautious when it comes to foul trouble or relying on points from their frontcourt to secure the win.
Instead, they can use that frontcourt on the defensive side and make it difficult for New Mexico’s bigs to earn their living down low. They can do so by sending those bigs to the line, where as a whole, they shoot a poor 59.2% from the charity stripe.
Prediction: New Mexico 80, Nevada 74
The power of the Pit has treated the Lobos well all season (10-0). With their only three losses of the season coming on the road. KenPom has New Mexico as 6-point favorites, which feels accurate given the margin of victory the Lobos have dealt to their opponents as of late but not forgetting Nevada’s offensive abilities any given night.
Though at this point in the season, teams are playing for their tourney resumes and at-large bids. A win in Albuquerque over a ranked New Mexico team means a heck of a whole lot for Nevada. While a homestand win for the Lobos not only gives them their first win over Steve Alford, but a solid quad 2 win to add to their own resume.
I think the current form the Lobos are in combined with their homecourt advantage gives them the win. It could be close but I see New Mexico pulling out the win Sunday night.
Larry Muniz covers college basketball as a writer for Mountain West Wire and WAC Hoops Digest. Also as a co-host of the college basketball podcast “Hoops Talk W/Jay & Larry”. He is also a USWBA Member.
