The New Hampshire primary has taken center stage today, as political observers wait with bated breath to see if former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley can pull off a major upset in her bid for the presidency. Haley's campaign has strategically focused on New Hampshire, recognizing its different demographic and socioeconomic profile compared to Iowa.
Thus far, only one township, Dixville Notch, has reported its results. With all six votes in this midnight voting tradition, Haley secured a perfect start to the day. However, it should be noted that this is just one township and not indicative of the overall outcome.
Haley's decision to prioritize New Hampshire becomes clear when considering certain factors. Her campaign invested a considerable sum of $29 million in the state, nearly double the amount spent by her main contender, Donald Trump. Iowa, on the other hand, was not as favorable for Haley, making New Hampshire a strategic choice.
One key aspect that sets New Hampshire apart is its educational attainment. Roughly 50% of residents in the state hold a college degree, a figure that surpasses Iowa by approximately 11%. Additionally, New Hampshire boasts a significantly higher income threshold, with over 50% of its population earning more than $125,000 per year. These characteristics attract suburban and educated voters, precisely the demographic that Haley aims to resonate with.
However, Haley's campaign faces a challenge reminiscent of the 2016 primary. Back then, Trump secured 35% of the vote, defeating John Kasich. Trump strategically invested time in New Hampshire, winning multiple towns. Haley needs to not only capture the townships that Kasich won but expand her support base beyond those areas.
One township to watch is Peterborough, which has a higher income and education level. This is a prime demographic for Haley, mirroring the areas where Kasich was able to edge out Trump in previous elections. Another key location is Bedford County, where Trump won by a 12-point margin in 2016. If Bedford shifts substantially towards Haley, it would signal that her campaign's desired outcome is on track.
Moreover, while we are not currently considering Democratic voters, it is worth noting that New Hampshire has increasingly leaned towards the blue side. Biden won comfortably in 2020. These Democratic strongholds, particularly suburban areas, will be crucial for Haley to attract undeclared voters who may lean towards her candidacy.
An important factor to monitor throughout the election is the number of undeclared voters. These voters are not affiliated with any political party and can choose their ballots freely. The Haley campaign needs a substantial portion of the 343,000 undeclared voters in New Hampshire to lean towards her, as the Republican party clearly aligns with Trump.
Haley's chances of pulling off a major upset largely depend on how these factors play out. If the undeclared voters heavily favor her and key townships shift towards her campaign, a competitive race could materialize. Conversely, if Trump maintains his dominance and support remains concentrated in Democratic strongholds, his victory would become increasingly certain.
New Hampshire's results will be closely watched as they provide crucial insights into the momentum and viability of Nikki Haley's presidential bid.
