Just 20 countries produce 80% of the world’s oil, gas and coal. Since 2019, researchers have released regular reports analysing how these governments plan to continue drilling and mining for fossil fuels – and how those plans diverge from the global climate goal set out in the Paris Agreement, which aims to limit temperature rise to less than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The 2025 Production Gap Report found that many of these countries still plan to produce far more fossil fuels by 2030 than is safe for the climate. Scientists Emily Ghosh, Derik Broekhoff, Bathandwa Vazi and Olivier Bois von Kursk were among the co-authors of the report, which found that Nigeria and South Africa – already among the world’s largest fossil fuel producers – plan to increase fossil fuel production despite their climate commitments.
How much fossil fuel are South Africa and Nigeria planning to produce?
The Nigerian government’s latest short-term fossil fuel production targets show that it wants to almost double oil output over the next five years, aiming to produce three million barrels per day by 2030.
