Since May 2025, Reform UK has led every poll of general election voting intention. Were an election held today, Reform would be poised to form a government. It would probably be a majority government, too. A party needs 326 seats in the House of Commons to form a majority, and Electoral Calculus currently estimates Reform’s range of seats between 319 and 418 MPs.
This puts Reform in a unique position in British politics. It could potentially form a majority government without ever having been the official opposition. Since 1922, the official opposition has been formed by one of two parties: Labour or the Conservatives. Even during the second world war, Labour remained the official opposition, even though Labour MPs sat in the wartime coalition government.
As part of his bid for government, Nigel Farage has announced what he is calling his “shadow cabinet”. The announcement, however, contained several curiosities.
