Nicola Sturgeon’s successor will likely come from the Cabinet she is leaving behind.
Health Secretary Humza Yousaf has been mentioned as a contender, as has Finance chief Kate Forbes, Constitution Secretary Angus Robertson and deputy SNP leader Keith Brown.
But all eyes are on Deputy First Minister John Swinney, who is Sturgeon’s closest ally in the Cabinet.
As one senior SNP source said: “If John stands, he will win.”
The insider added that if Swinney goes for the top job, others will not bother.
The million dollar question is whether Swinney, who like Sturgeon has been an MSP since 1999, wants to be the successor.
Swinney has been here before and has the scars to prove it.
He was SNP leader between 2000 and 2004 and resigned after a torrid period that was marked by infighting and relentless backbiting.
When I asked him in 2014 whether he would consider the job again, he was adamant he would never return in that capacity.
“Unreservedly, absolutely, in no circumstances, there is no way of you configuring any signal I am possibly giving you, to say anything other than ‘no.’”
“I have certainly no intention of going back to that territory.”
However, that was then, and this is now. Politics is unrecognisable from 2014 and Swinney will be weighing up his options.
Forbes, currently on maternity leave, has impressed at Finance but is a renowned social conservative. Leadership hustings would be dominated by her views on abortion and gay rights.
Robertson is the bookies’ favourite and knows the SNP inside out. But as with Swinney, it would be hard to argue Robertson is a fresh face.
Yousaf, meanwhile, is probably too tarred with the problems facing the health service to be considered a serious option.
Brown, who as depute leader knows the party membership inside out, could be the dark horse.
Alex Salmond quit the SNP leadership in 2014 knowing he had a ready-made replacement in Sturgeon.
The SNP’s problem is that filling the vacancy this time is not so clear cut.
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