Nicola Sturgeon detests Tories and still craves independence. But her route to it is perilous

‘In what circumstances would the SNP vote with the Conservatives to bring down a Labour administration and open the door to a government by the party that Sturgeon detests?’ Photograph: Stuart Wallace/REX/Shutterstock

Nicola Sturgeon declared this week she is part of the “independence generation” that will take Scotland out of the United Kingdom. She may be right. Generational differences matter a lot more in modern politics than in the past. Young people in Scotland tend to be pro-independence and may remain so as they age. Since the constitutional issue shapes party politics in Scotland so strongly, a lot will have to alter if it is still to be part of the UK in 2050.

Back here in 2022, however, things are not looking quite so rosy for Sturgeon, for the Scottish National party or for their objective of a second independence referendum. The SNP has long been the most message-disciplined party in our politics, but beneath the unchanging convictions displayed on its surface there is well founded unease about where the independence campaign will be by the middle of the decade.