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Nicholls election result sees Coalition stronghold collapse in northern Victorian seat

Sam Birrell has retained the seat of Nicholls for the Nationals, but on a smaller margin. (ABC Goulburn Murray: Courtney Howe)

On election night in the northern Victorian seat of Nicholls, two very different parties were taking place.

In one, there was a din of celebration, and speeches to eager applause.

In the other, smiles were plastered on faces in the crowd, but at times, a bristling tension filled the air.

Believe it or not, it was this latter party which was hosted by the Nationals – the party which had claimed victory.

After a long night, the Nationals managed to retain the seat of Nicholls, and Sam Birrell will take over from retiring MP Damian Drum.

But it's a bittersweet victory.

Nicholls independent candidate Rob Priestly with wife Sonia and supporters.

Independent candidate Rob Priestly has hacked a significant chunk off the Nationals' vast 20 per cent margin.

The conservative stranglehold on Nicholls has collapsed overnight.

From here on in, it will be a fight to retain it.

Nicholls now 'completely contestable'

Mr Priestly’s strong performance in the seat of Nicholls is evidence of a growing discontent with the major parties among many Australian voters.

It's a discontent which has already seen an "independent belt" emerge across the northern region.

This includes Helen Haines in the neighbouring seat of Indi, who retained the seat last night with a strong swing in her favour.

New Nationals member for Nicholls Sam Birrell has won the seat after a tight contest. (ABC News)

So although Mr Priestly wasn't victorious, he feels he has won in another sense.

"We've taken Nicholls from being one of the safest seats in the country, never discussed, never part of the national agenda, to being at the centre of the political discussion," he said to supporters.

"It may not have been this one, but it will be the next one or the one after for sure.

Nicholls independent candidate Rob Priestly gives his concession speech. (ABC Goulburn Murray: Charmayne Allison)

Emotionally exhausting fight for Birrell

For the seat's new Nationals member Mr Birrell, it's been an exhausting battle.

"It's been emotionally difficult – physically, mentally a challenge," he said.

He said the seat's stark swing against the Nationals showed his party "needs to listen to the electorate very carefully".

"The electorate is very annoyed and upset, and independents offer a bet each way in that you can have a political representative who's not associated with the really difficult decisions either the Coalition or Labor might have to make," he said.

Nationals candidate for Nicholls Sam Birrell with wife Lisa and supporters. (ABC Goulburn Murray: Charmayne Allison)

Question mark over election promises

Not only is Nicholls no longer a conservative stronghold – Mr Birrell will now be representing his constituents under a Labor government.

He said there was now a big question mark over whether the Nationals' election promises, funded in the latest federal budget, would go ahead.

But he pledged to continue fighting for these projects, including the Shepparton Sports and Events Centre and a new clinical health school in the city.

The seat's vast Nationals' margin has narrowed due to a strong challenge from independent Rob Priestly. (ABC Goulburn Murray: Charmayne Allison)

But Mr Priestly has different plans for the seat.

"If we've gone this close this time, it's only going to get closer," he said.

"I don't know if it's the next election or it's the one after.

New Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's victory speech in full
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