The NHS is having its worst winter in recent memory with strikes, record ambulance and A&E waiting times, and fears of excess deaths caused by delays in treatment. What hope is there for improvement in 2023?
It’s hard to find any cause for optimism in the current crisis. However, the worst elements of the crisis may be ameliorated as we move further away from the acute phase of the pandemic. Some recent trends in the workforce might also improve the situation.
The mismatch between supply and demand is causing the crisis in the NHS. Supply of healthcare in the NHS is constrained by workforce problems such as higher numbers of staff off sick, early retirements – including those caused by pension problems for doctors – as well as Brexit and lower immigration during the pandemic. The best evidence for the size of the workforce crisis is the number of vacancies in the NHS: the latest data shows that there are 133,446 vacancies, which is 9.7% of the NHS workforce.
