Miami Dolphins (+8.5) at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, 1pm ET (Sunday, 6pm GMT)
By Luke Baker
The Buffalo Bills (13-3) are superior to the Miami Dolphins (9-8) on offense, defense and special teams, they boast a seven-game winning streak, starting quarterback Josh Allen has an 8-2 record against the Dolphins and they have home advantage at one of the toughest NFL stadiums to visit.
Simply put, the Bills shouldn’t need any additional help to crush their AFC East rivals in the first game of Sunday’s wild card triple header but, with the fire of safety Damar Hamlin’s recovery from an on-field cardiac arrest burning within them, Sean McDermott’s team have it anyway.
Following an emotional on-field tribute to Hamlin ahead of their first game since his scary collapse during the previous Monday’s clash with the Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo returner Nyheim Hines fittingly took the opening kickoff for a touchdown in Week 18 against the New England Patriots. That led to a 35-23 win that, coincidentally, enabled the Dolphins to sneak into the playoffs as the AFC’s seventh seed by squeezing past the New York Jets 11-6 in an ugly encounter to bring a merciful end to their five-game losing streak.
With Hamlin set to be released from hospital in the next 48 hours, Buffalo’s motivation for a deep postseason run – and maybe even that elusive first Super Bowl title – will be greater than ever. It’s hard to see out-of-form Miami, who have questions at QB with starter Tua Tagovailoa sidelined by a concussion, back-up Teddy Bridgewater questionable with a finger injury and third-string rookie Skylar Thompson having been exposed during regular-season action, springing the upset.
The Bills will be ‘doing it for Damar’ and Dolphins fans’ interminable wait for a playoff win – currently the second-longest postseason victory drought in the NFL behind only the hapless Detroit Lions – looks set to extend to 22 years.
Baltimore Ravens (+7.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, 8:15pm ET (Monday, 1:15am GMT)
By Ben Burrows
As it has been for the last five weeks, the talk heading into this most important of Baltimore Ravens games has been centred around the health of quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Jackson injured his knee in a win over the Denver Broncos in early December and hasn't played since. With the status of their star player firmly up in the air, the Ravens hopes of progressing in the AFC playoffs seem equally uncertain.
Their opponents on Sunday, the Cincinnati Bengals, were the class of the AFC North for much of the year and showed there is a clear gap between them and the Ravens in a comfortable 27-16 win to close the regular season in week 18. Indeed, the defending AFC champions look to have as good a chance as anyone to emerge from the conference again.
Baltimore, who sat starters on Sunday with this opening postseason game in mind, did show signs of life even with undrafted rookie Anthony Brown thrust into a first career start under centre. Their defence, a top five unit since newly-inked linebacker Roquan Smith was acquired at the trade deadline, has plenty of playmakers who can cause Joe Burrow problems.
But Burrow has weapons of his own with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon representing one of the most feared offenses in the league with the QB himself playing as well as he ever has over the closing stretch. Burrow described his Super Bowl window as being "my whole career" in the afterglow of a second consecutive division title.
Without Jackson suiting up opposite him this weekend, the Bengals and Burrow look a good bet for the victory and another deep run at the Lombardi Trophy.
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday, 8:15pm ET (Tuesday, 1:15am GMT)
By Jack Rathborn
This could be the last dance for Tom Brady and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, yet one of the golden rules over the last two decades in the NFL is that you do not bet against TB12, even at 45 years old and as an underdog at home.
A dysfunctional Bucs team meandered to the NFC South title, ending the regular season with a poor 8-9 record, just one better than everybody else, yet it is the Dallas Cowboys who enter wild card weekend with the more urgent and alarming issues. Dak Prescott’s horrific pick six to Kendall Fuller in the Week 18 beatdown to the miserable Washington Commanders means pressure and expectation shifts to Dan Quinn’s explosive, yet fading force of defence, which finished third (54) in sacks and second (10) in takeaways this season.
The Cowboys, seeking to improve a dismal play-off record of three wins in 13 games stretching back to 1998 and, they hope, a first Conference Championship game since winning it all in 1995, must hope their bruised defense can arrest a 10-point slide from 17.2 points given up per game after 12 games to 27.2 per game across their last five games.
Repelling a determined Brady, targeting an eighth ring, became a trickier task after a Week 17 explosion on offense, with a rejuvenated Mike Evans peppered for 10 receptions, 207 yards and three touchdowns. A Cowboys win, to seize back momentum, appears dependent on an interception or two from Trevon Diggs (3 this season), Daron Bland (5) and Malik Hooker (3) to stamp out any hope of one last hurrah for Brady. At least in Bucs red.
