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Sports Illustrated

Sport

Kyle Wood

NFL Week 9 Preview: Best Games, Best Bets, Predictions

NFL Eagles Chiefs Cowboys Cincinnati Bengals Patrick Mahomes Seahawks Bills Dallas (Organization) Josh Allen

Of the nine weeks to date in the NFL season, this might be the best.

We start off early over in Europe, with the Chiefs technically hosting the Dolphins in a key AFC showdown. Both enter the game 6–2 with the winner sitting atop the conference standings while also owning what might be a massive tiebreaker.

Then, we see the Ravens and Seahawks battle in the early window. Both have only lost two games this year and yet hold slim leads in their respective divisions. Speaking of tight leads, the Eagles are 1.5 games ahead of the Cowboys in the NFC East and could extend that cushion in the late window with Dallas coming to Lincoln Financial Field.

Finally, Sunday night gives us a battle of the rejuvenated Bengals and the Josh Allen-led Bills. Both teams have three losses, meaning whoever loses has serious work to do just to ensure making the playoffs. Conversely, the winner feels terrific about both its postseason odds and the chance to chase down a division title.

So how do we think those games and a few others will go? We break it all down below.

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Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs look to bounce back after a surprising loss last week in Denver.
Isaiah J&period; Downing/USA TODAY Sports

You’re going to want to set your alarm for this game. It might not always seem like the NFL sends its best teams abroad, but this meeting between Miami and Kansas City has everything.

It’s simultaneously a Tyreek Hill revenge game and a chance for Patrick Mahomes and Co. to prove (again) that they’re just fine without the league’s leading receiver. It’s also a clash between the two teams with the best Super Bowl odds in the AFC and the result could very well decide the No. 1 seed come January. And, perhaps most importantly for bettors, plenty of points are projected to be scored with an over/under in the 50s.

The Dolphins had a letdown loss two weeks ago against the Eagles. They fell 31–17 on the road to continue their losing streak against teams with winning records. Tua Tagovailoa bounced back the following Sunday to beat the Patriots by that same score, 31–17, and Jalen Ramsey had an interception in his Miami debut. Jaylen Waddle and Hill both had over 100 receiving yards in the same game for the first time this season, though the league’s No. 1 rushing offense was limited yet again.

The Chiefs lost to the Broncos last week for the first time in Mahomes’s career. The 24–9 defeat ended a 16-game winning streak over their division rival. Kansas City committed five turnovers and never found the end zone with Mahomes battling the flu. Remember, that was against the same defense that the Dolphins hung 70 on in Week 3. The 2.5-point spread is the lowest line of the year for the Chiefs, who haven’t dropped back-to-back games since September 2021.

Mahomes and Tagovailoa, both MVP candidates, have gone head-to-head once before in their careers. The Chiefs came out on top 33–27 in 2020, Tagovailoa’s rookie year. Two touchdowns from Hill helped decide that outcome. It would come as no surprise if he’s an X-factor again in this game.

Verderame’s pick: Chiefs -2.5, Over 50.5 (Kansas City 32, Miami 24)
Manzano’s pick: Chiefs -2.5, Over 50.5 (Kansas City 30, Miami 27)
Wood’s pick: Chiefs -2.5, Over 50.5 (Kansas City 31, Miami 27)

A.J. Brown has had 125-plus receiving yards in six straight games.
Bill Streicher/USA TODAY Sports

It’s been more than two years since Dak Prescott and Jalen Hurts shared the field. Since then, Dallas won both games with Prescott active and Philadelphia won once when Hurts was under center. As usual, this NFC East meeting has wider implications in the conference with the Eagles gunning for the No. 1 seed once again and the Cowboys trying to keep up in the race for the division title.

Dallas reasserted its dominance last week in a 43–20 romp of the Rams. Prescott threw for 300 yards and four touchdowns for the first time this year and about half of that production went to CeeDee Lamb, who posted season-highs across the board. The Cowboys defense scored its NFL-leading fourth defensive touchdown in an all-around effort, but the running game continues to struggle.

Tony Pollard has his work cut out for him against Philadelphia’s fearsome front, which allows a league-low 65.5 rushing yards per game. On the other hand, the Eagles’ secondary just allowed almost 400 yards and four touchdowns to Sam Howell in a 38–31 shootout win over the Commanders. Hurts had a day when targeting A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith but Washington was able to keep up a week after Philly held Miami to a season-low 17 points.

The spread is tight for a Sunday afternoon showdown at the Linc, but it’s worth noting only one Cowboys-Eagles game in the last three years was decided by one score. These rivals have traded blowouts for the last few seasons.

Verderame’s pick: Eagles -3.5, Under 45.5 (Philadelphia 24, Dallas 20)
Manzano’s pick: Cowboys +3.5, Over 45.5 (Philadelphia 27, Dallas 24)|
Wood’s pick: Eagles -3.5, Over 46.5 (Philadelphia 27, Dallas 23)

Lamar Jackson is 17-1 in his career vs. NFC teams.
AP Photo/Nick Wass

Lamar Jackson will put his sterling record against NFC opponents on the line once again Sunday versus Seattle. The former MVP quarterback improved to 17–1 against the conference with wins over the Cardinals and Lions in the last two weeks and the Ravens are sizable favorites to make that 18–1 against a Seahawks team that’s won two straight and five of its last six.

Seattle gutted out a 24–20 win last week over the Browns thanks to a last-minute touchdown catch from rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Geno Smith had another two-interception outing, but the Seahawks were able to overcome that by forcing three turnovers themselves. That win also saw them leap past the 49ers in the NFC West, something that seemed highly unlikely just a few weeks ago when San Francisco was still undefeated.

It was all Baltimore through three quarters last week against Arizona in a game that ended up being decided by one score. The Cardinals came storming back in the fourth for a more respectable 31–24 final score thanks to a successful onside kick attempt. Jackson had a pedestrian day as a passer as the Ravens leaned on Gus Edwards to the tune of 94 total yards and three touchdowns.

This matchup might fly a bit under the radar but it’s certainly one of the best of the week. Both teams are top 10 by DVOA and while Baltimore comes in with the No. 1 scoring defense in the league, allowing just 15.1 points per game, Seattle has had a shutdown defense for the better part of the last month, too.

Verderame’s pick: Seahawks +5.5, Over 43.5 (Baltimore 27, Seattle 23)
Manzano’s pick: Seahawks +5.5, Over 43.5 (Baltimore 24, Seattle 20)
Wood’s pick: Seahawks +5.5, Over 43.5 (Baltimore 24, Seattle 20)

Josh Allen and Joe Burrow met in the playoffs last January in what was a road win for the Bengals.
Jamie Germano/USA TODAY Sports

Do you remember what happened the last time the Bills and Bengals played? Buffalo sure does. It was outright embarrassed at home in the divisional round in a 27–10 romp in the snow. This time around, Cincinnati gets to host and has been installed as a slight favorite after the way the last meeting went and given how the Bills have played of late.

Buffalo has the benefit of a long layoff since its Thursday night game last week, when it beat the Buccaneers by six. The week prior was a loss to the Patriots and before that was a narrow win over the Giants in which the offense mustered just 14 points. The Bills’ only road win this season came against the Commanders and the Bengals have defended home field well despite their sluggish start.

Cincinnati is finally hitting its stride, having won three straight and four of its last five. The Bengals’ most recent win, a 31–17 triumph over the 49ers, was by far the most impressive and certainly the best game of the year for Joe Burrow, who tossed three touchdowns and did not commit a turnover. Josh Allen, on the other hand, has thrown an interception in four consecutive games, though he’s also thrown for multiple scores in five straight.

This is just the second-ever meeting between Allen and Burrow, two of the game's best quarterbacks. The latter stole the show in the first act — perhaps the former will have something to say about that come Sunday night in Cincy.

Verderame’s pick: Bengals -2.5, Over 48.5 (Cincinnati 31, Buffalo 20)
Manzano’s pick: Bengals -2.5, Under 48.5 (Cincinnati 23, Buffalo 20)
Wood’s pick: Bills +2.5, Under 48.5 (Cincinnati 24, Buffalo 23)

Austin Ekeler missed time earlier this season with an ankle injury but he’s played well of late.
Mark J&period; Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports

This almost feels like a must-win game for L.A. and New York, with both teams currently out of the AFC playoff picture. The Chargers can’t afford to fall two games under .500 and the Jets need to keep the momentum going amidst a three-game winning streak.

Part of what makes this matchup so intriguing is the dichotomy between these two teams’ strengths and weaknesses: Los Angeles’ top-10 offense keeps the team competitive, at times in spite of its bottom-10 defense, while New York has an elite defense but its offense still leaves a lot to be desired.

The Chargers put an end to their two-game skid last week by beating the Bears, 31–10. Justin Herbert threw for almost 300 yards and three scores and Austin Ekeler looked like his usual self, hauling in seven catches for 94 yards and a touchdown.

The Jets’ beat the Giants, 13–10, in overtime Sunday, their fewest points in a victory this year. It was an ugly game, but New York doesn’t mind winning ugly. It dragged Philadelphia down into the muck the week before with four turnovers and got the best of Denver by winning the turnover battle as well.

It might be difficult for Breece Hall to get going on the ground but Zach Wilson and Garrett Wilson should be able to move the ball against this secondary, which surrenders the most passing yards per game.

Verderame’s pick: Jets +2.5, Under 41.5 (Los Angeles 20, New York 19)
Manzano’s pick: Chargers -2.5, Under 41.5 (Los Angeles 20, New York 17)
Wood’s pick: Jets +2.5 (Under 41.5 (Los Angeles 17, New York 16)

Final Thoughts

Verderame: This is the perfect week for people to be all over the Chiefs. They just lost a terrible game to the Broncos, the offense was a disaster, and combined with the special teams committed five turnovers. Typically, when a great team plays really badly against an inferior opponent, it comes out meaning business the following week. Kansas City has real issues at receiver, but the defense is a top-three unit. Oh, and Patrick Mahomes won’t forget all the jabs Tyreek Hill took at him over the last year-and-a-half on his podcast.

Manzano: I might regret trusting the Chargers to win on the road against a very good Jets defense, but I don’t see the Zach Wilson-led Jets scoring more than 20 points. I have more faith in Justin Herbert doing enough in a game that might be as ugly as Jets-Giants last week. I’m also starting to trust the Cowboys again, but not enough for them to record the upset in Philadelphia. The Cowboys matchup well with the Eagles. Expect a close game.

Wood: What a wonderful weekend of football we have ahead. There’s a playoff rematch and perhaps a few postseason previews. I’m honing in on the rivalry components: Tyreek Hill against his old team, Cowboys-Eagles and the lingering feeling from the Bills’ embarrassing loss to the Bengals in the playoffs. I’m not sure that Hill and the Dolphins or Josh Allen and Buffalo have enough to exact revenge, but I think both games come down to the wire.

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