If you’re still betting on the over in NFL games this season, my only question is why?
Entering Week 9, only seven of the 26 teams in action had played in more games that hit the over than games that hit the under. Of those teams, only the Philadelphia Eagles played in a game that went over again this past week.
In fact, only four of 13 games crossed their over thresholds in Week 9.
Scoring is way down in the NFL this year, at its lowest since 2017. And now that we’ve crossed the midpoint of the season, it’s time to accept lower scoring as the new normal. Bet the under.
AFC East is suddenly wide open
The Buffalo Bills might still be big favorites to win the Super Bowl with +260 odds at Tipico Sportsbook, but their hold in the AFC East loosened quite a bit in Week 9. Odds are still in Buffalo’s favor at -549 to win the division, but losing to the Jets shortened the team’s lead to just a half-game over New York (+1500) and the Miami Dolphins (+480) — the only two teams to beat Buffalo this year.
Add to that the reported injury to Josh Allen’s elbow, and this division could be in for a tighter race in the second half of the season than anyone anticipated.
Looking at the mechanism of injury – where Josh Allen’s forearm was hit as he prepared to throw – this fits (UCL and ulnar nerve).
Before everyone panics, let’s wait and see what the details are. There are a range of outcomes depending on severity/functionality. https://t.co/9GhItLxepY— Stephania Bell (@Stephania_ESPN) November 7, 2022
Bengals found a run game
Just when it looked like the Cincinnati Bengals were a one-dimensional offense on the verge of doom following an injury to Ja’Marr Chase, their rushing attack finally came to life. And before you write it off simply as a product of playing the Carolina Panthers, consider that Carolina had the NFL’s third-best run stop win rate entering Week 9, according to ESPN Analytics.
Against that defense, the Bengals ran for over 240 yards, including Joe Mixon’s 153 to go with four touchdowns. That’s a potentially huge development as they look to keep the ship afloat in the next few weeks without Chase.
Week 9 Bad Beats
- With under a minute left and the game tied at 17, the Falcons recovered a Chargers fumble and returned it into Atlanta territory only to fumble it back to the Chargers and lose on a field goal as time expired.
WHAT just happened in Atlanta?!
📺: #LACvsATL on FOX
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/6cnVqEemUW pic.twitter.com/9xeLvxRyYe— NFL (@NFL) November 6, 2022
- Tied at 17 in the fourth quarter, the Vikings had a chance to score a touchdown and cover the 3.5-point spread, and Washington seemed willing to let them score in order to get the ball back with time left. The Vikings instead opted to stay out of the end zone and milk clock before kicking a field goal.
- The Raiders led the Jaguars 20-7 with 45 seconds left in the first half. They were outscored 20-0 the rest of the game to blow the win and the cover.
17+ point blown leads by Raiders in franchise history
1960-2021 5 times
First 8 games in 2022 3 times pic.twitter.com/5ijm5s3uYU— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 6, 2022
