We’re five weeks into the 2026 NFL season, meaning we now have enough of a sample size to determine which teams are contenders and which are pretenders.
For example, the 49ers, Chiefs and Vikings have all begun the season undefeated and put themselves in prime position to make the postseason. Since 2002, 87% of teams that have started 4–0 have made the playoffs—a figure that rises to 89% for those that start 5–0. On the flipside, the Chargers, Dolphins and Titans are all but out of the running, as no NFL team has started 0–5 and made the playoffs. (Even with a longer season and more wild-card teams than they had in 2002, a turnaround of that magnitude feels unlikely.)
