The NFC North might be the best division in the NFL with the Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions off to strong starts.
It’s probably too early to overlook the Chicago Bears in the division, but we will for this story because many are tired of seeing Caleb Williams get pummeled on a weekly basis due to a poor offensive line.
The Packers hosting the undefeated Vikings at Lambeau Field might be the best game of the week, which not many saw coming after Jordan Love injured his knee in Brazil during the season opener against the Philadelphia Eagles. Malik Willis has filled in admirably in his absence, leading Green Bay to victories over the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans. But Love could be cleared to play this week, adding more intrigue to this showdown.
The Lions have had somewhat of a sluggish start, but they found a way to hold off the Arizona Cardinals last week. They now return home to face the Seattle Seahawks, one of five 3–0 teams in the NFL. The Seahawks have plenty to prove because this might be their first game against a quality opponent after defeating the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins without Tua Tagovailoa.
Over in the AFC, the Buffalo Bills put their undefeated record on the line against the Baltimore Ravens, who avoided the dreaded 0–3 start after defeating the Dallas Cowboys last week. Allen could be the early MVP frontrunner with how well he’s played through three games.
We will also keep tabs on the Philadelphia Eagles traveling to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the Kansas City Chiefs on the road against the banged-up Los Angeles Chargers. Here’s everything you need to know about the five best games of Week 4, including Gilberto Manzano’s key matchups, Matt Verderame’s key stats, Michael Fabiano’s who to start and who to sit in fantasy, Jennifer Piacenti’s best bets and Conor Orr’s prediction for each game.
Start ’em/Sit ’em | MMQB Staff Picks | NFL Betting Picks
Sunday
Minnesota Vikings (3–0) at Green Bay Packers (2–1)
When/TV: 1 p.m. ET Fox
Spread: Packers -3 (over/under 43.5)
Matchup to watch: Vikings QB Sam Darnold vs. Packers S Xavier McKinney. The Vikings’ defense has received plenty of praise, but the Packers’ defense has a league-high nine takeaways this season. Darnold will need to protect the football and keep tabs on McKinney, who has one interception in every game this season. —Gilberto Manzano
Key stat: Minnesota ranks second in blitz percentage at 39.3%, and it leads the league with 16 sacks, so the Packers must get rid of the ball quickly. Last season, Love had an average pocket time of 2.5 seconds. Only five quarterbacks held the ball longer. —Matt Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Darnold is on fire, throwing six touchdown passes in his past two games. During that time, he’s averaged 21.6 points. That makes it tough to bench him, but this week’s matchup is a tough one. Green Bay’s defense has allowed an average of fewer than 14 points to quarterbacks, so this could be a mediocre week for Darnold. —Michael Fabiano
Best bet: Vikings +3. I picked the Vikings outright last week against the Texans, and this week I’m taking the points. Don’t sleep on this Minnesota defense. Love lost his only start this season, and if he play, will be just returning from injury. If the Vikings can shut down C.J. Stroud, they can get to Love, too. —Jennifer Piacenti
SI’s pick: Vikings. As of the writing of this article, Love has a shot to play. However, as someone who was torched by Kyle Shanahan’s fudging of the language on an injury report, I’ll believe it when I see it. Until I know Love is out there, I can’t, with any degree of confidence, bet on a QB2 against a Brian Flores defense that has torched Stroud, Brock Purdy and Daniel Jones already. —Conor Orr
Philadelphia Eagles (2–1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2–1)
When/TV: 1 p.m. ET Fox
Spread: Eagles -2 (over/under 44)
Matchup to watch: Eagles DT Jalen Carter vs. Buccaneers’ offensive line. Carter wrecked the Saints’ game plan with his dominant performance last week, paving the way for the Eagles’ defense to shut down New Orleans’s explosive offense. Carter might need to do more of the same to help his defensive unit against Baker Mayfield and his many weapons. —Manzano
Key stat: Mayfield is averaging 4.1 air yards per attempt, only better than Patrick Mahomes and Tagovailoa. Look for the Eagles to play underneath and try to force some lower-percentage throws. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Dallas Goedert went off for 170 yards and 27 fantasy points in a win over the Saints. He saw 11 targets, and that sort of volume could continue with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith injured. The Buccaneers have also allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to tight ends dating back to last season, so Goedert should be considered a must-start option. —Fabiano
Best bet: Chris Godwin over 63.5 receiving yards. Godwin has been Mayfield’s favorite target this year. He leads the team with a 29.3% target share and 253 total yards for an average of 84 per game. He’s also Mayfield’s first read 38.2% of the time—that’s the fourth-highest mark among all NFL receivers. This week he faces an Eagles team that allowed 88 yards to Darnell Mooney and 138 yards to Jayden Reed—both of whom also run routes primarily from the slot. —Piacenti
SI’s pick: Buccaneers. A lengthy injury report for Tampa Bay complicates this one. I have a feeling that missing bodies accounted for last week’s surprise loss to Denver. However, we saw Philadelphia’s weak zone against competent and accurate quarterback play and unleashing Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans and Godwin against this secondary could lead to a higher scoring affair than the Eagles are used to—or able to keep up with. —Orr
Kansas City Chiefs (3–0) at Los Angeles Chargers (2–1)
When/TV: 4:25 p.m. ET CBS
Spread: Chiefs -7.5 (over/under 40)
Matchup to watch: Chiefs DT Chris Jones vs. Chargers’ offensive line. Justin Herbert’s status is up in the air due to an ankle injury. But if he manages to play, it could be a long day for him against Jones, especially if tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt don’t play. Many key Chargers sustained injuries last week in Pittsburgh. —Manzano
Key stat: With Herbert and both of his star tackles potentially out, can the Chargers throw at all? Los Angeles was already tied for 26th at 9.4 yards per completion, while Kansas City’s defense has allowed 11.0 yards per completion, sitting 17th. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: J.K. Dobbins came crashing back down to earth last week, averaging just 2.9 yards per rush and scoring 8.4 points in a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The good news is he did lead the Chargers backfield in touches, so he still has flex value. Keep in mind, however, that the Chiefs defense has surrendered the third-fewest PPR points to home running backs since 2023. —Fabiano
Best bet: Under 40. The Chargers have averaged just 19.3 points per game this season, while the Chiefs have averaged 25. But points could be hard to come by in this one. With injuries to their quarterback and offensive line, the Chargers will lean into their run game, but probably not successfully against a stout Chiefs run defense. On the other side, L.A.’s defense has allowed just 11 points and 267 yards per game to opponents. —Piacenti
SI’s pick: Chiefs. While I would love to pick Easton Stick and Jim Harbaugh to upset the Chiefs, I’m having a hard time imagining it, even if Kansas City is going through its yearly Patriots’ shape shifting, self-finding process. Look for this to be a game in which Kansas City tries to get Travis Kelce back in the fold. —Orr
Buffalo Bills (3–0) at Baltimore Ravens (1–2)
When/TV: 8:20 p.m. NBC, Peacock
Spread: Ravens -2.5 (over/under 46.5)
Matchup to watch: Bills RB James Cook vs. Ravens LB Roquan Smith. Cook’s presence could be why Allen is having one of his better seasons despite not having a true No. 1 wide receiver. Cook makes Buffalo’s offense run efficiently as a pass-catching running back. But he might run into trouble against Smith, the back-to-back first-team All-Pro. —Manzano
Key stat: The best matchup will be Lamar Jackson against Sean McDermott’s defense. Baltimore leads the league averaging 6.6 yards per play, while Buffalo’s defense is second in the metric at 4.2. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Khalil Shakir has emerged as the top option in the offense for Allen, averaging 14.3 fantasy points. He’ll be a fine flex option this week, as he faces a Ravens defense that’s given up the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. What’s more, five wideouts, including Jalen Tolbert and KaVonte Turpin, have scored at least 13.2 points against them.. —Fabiano
Best bet: Bills +2.5. Both quarterbacks are elite and both offenses have the potential to put up big numbers, but the edge is with the Buffalo defense. The Bills have allowed just 16 points per game as opposed to 27 per game allowed by the Ravens. Buy the points. —Piacenti
SI’s pick: Baltimore. Buffalo has been excellent but the Ravens are sneaky desperate and have played capably each week (save for the Raiders). This is the week it all comes together for Baltimore. A Derrick Henry game combined with a great Lamar game and tons of quick passing action. And…a Justin Tucker game to boot. —Orr
MONDAY
Seattle Seahawks (3–0) at Detroit Lions (2–1)
When/TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, ABC, ESPN+
Spread: Lions -3.5 (over/under 46.5)
Matchup to watch: Seahawks WR DK Metcalf vs. Lions’ cornerbacks. Metcalf has been on a tear lately, generating at least 100 yards and one touchdown in each of the past two games. The physical wideout could cause plenty of issues for a Lions’ secondary that has disappointed through three games. It’s been a rough start for cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Terrion Arnold, the rookie first-round pick. —Manzano
Key stat: Can the Seahawks remain a brick wall on third down? Seattle ranks fourth at 26.1% in allowing third-down conversions while the Lions’ offense is fifth at 45.2%. —Verderame
Start ’em/sit ’em: Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been held to single digits in two of his first three games, but he’s a nice option in Detroit. The Lions’ defense has allowed the third-most fantasy points to slot men, including big games to Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin. Smith-Njigba, who has run 77.7% of his routes on the inside, should find success. —Fabiano
Best bet: Seahawks +3.5. It seems like the Seahawks are due for a loss, but I don’t see a pathway for the Lions to win this decisively. I’m buying the points for Seattle, and I’ll also have a sprinkle on the Seahawks to win outright. —Piacenti
SI’s pick: Lions. Mike Macdonald versus Ben Johnson is the matchup of the week for football nerds. Johnson is calling some bangers and Macdonald’s defense is second in EPA per play. I think Detroit simply possesses a higher end of firepower that will help them edge the surprisingly undefeated Seahawks —Orr
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as NFL Week 4: Best Games, Key Matchups, Fantasy Tips, Best Bets and Predictions.
