As the NFL begins to turn a page to Week 18 and NFL-related content follows, our thoughts remain with Damar Hamlin. Nothing we discuss here is more important than his well-being. You can keep up with the latest on his condition here.
My glimpse at betting lines around the NFL will be a little different this week, with many games carrying playoff implications and a few meaningless games sprinkled in. So, I’ll layout everything at stake for each matchup before diving into my thoughts for the games that matter.
Spreads and over/under numbers are from BetMGM and subject to change after this is published.
Chiefs at Raiders (+9.5) (O/U: 52.5)
Playoff stakes: Chiefs can clinch AFC No. 1 seed with win
Chiefs: 13-3 (6-9-1 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
Raiders: 6-10 (8-8 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
The Raiders are playing better football lately. So even with their season effectively over, I wouldn’t rule out a cover in another inspired effort to stick it to their division rival. The Chiefs haven’t been good ATS down the stretch.
Titans at Jaguars (-6) (O/U: 40)
Playoff stakes: AFC South division title
Titans: 7-9 (7-7-2 ATS, 5-11 O/U)
Jaguars: 8-8 (8-8 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
The Titans are going to Joshua Dobbs at quarterback in hopes of changing course and getting into the postseason after a six-game skid. But if you’re deploying a third-stringer against one of the NFL’s hottest teams, that doesn’t bode well for your chances of a road cover, let alone a win.
Patriots at Bills (-7) (O/U: 42.5)
Playoff stakes: Patriots can clinch final AFC Wild Card with win
Patriots: 8-8 (7-8-1 ATS, 7-9 O/U)
Bills: 12-3 (7-8 ATS, 5-10 O/U)
It’s hard to know if the Bills are mentally and emotionally ready to play a game with Damar Hamlin still hospitalized. If so, they’re obviously the better team — they beat the Pats on the road by 14 in December. If Buffalo wins again, the Patriots can still make the playoffs with help. But again, the Bills have a lot on their minds right now.
Jets at Dolphins (-1) (O/U: 38.5)
Playoff stakes: Dolphins can clinch AFC Wild Card with win + Patriots loss
Jets: 7-9 (8-8 ATS, 5-11 O/U)
Dolphins: 8-8 (7-7-2 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
Miami picked the worst time to go on an five-game losing streak, but the team can leave that disappointment in the past with a win here and a Pats loss. The problem is they seem increasingly likely to start Skylar Thompson at quarterback, which doesn’t bode well against a tough Jets defense. The under feels good.
Browns at Steelers (-2.5) (O/U: 40.5)
Playoff stakes: Steelers can clinch AFC Wild Card with win + losses by Dolphins and Patriots
Browns: 7-9 (8-8 ATS, 7-9 O/U)
Steelers: 8-8 (9-6-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U)
It’s incredible the Steelers have played their way back into playoff contention, but they still need a lot of help. Plus, the Browns are only a game back. This is an even matchup and likely to be a tight one based on Pittsburgh’s latest finishes: seven straight one-score games.
Ravens at Bengals (-7) (O/U: 42)
Playoff stakes: AFC seeding
Ravens: 10-6 (6-9-1 ATS, 4-12 O/U)
Bengals: 11-4 (12-3 ATS, 5-10 O/U)
As of now, the Ravens can’t make up ground on the Bengals in the AFC North with Cincy’s Week 17 game being unresolved, so this game only comes down to seeding and could feature backups if the coaches want to give guys a rest. If starters are going, Baltimore’s offense will have a hard time scoring with Cincy.
Chargers at Broncos (+2.5) (O/U: 39.5)
Playoff stakes: Chargers seeding in AFC
Chargers: 10-6 (9-4-3 ATS, 7-9 O/U)
Broncos: 4-12 (7-9 ATS, 5-11 O/U)
Favored or not, the Chargers have covered a bunch of spreads down the stretch of this season and they’ll likely want to continue that momentum in the season finale. Their starters will be going, making this a tough matchup for a Denver team that just played the Chiefs close for a second time this season.
Giants at Eagles (-14) (O/U: 43)
Playoff stakes: Eagles can clinch NFC No. 1 seed with win
Giants: 9-6-1 (12-4 ATS, 6-10 O/U)
Eagles: 13-3 (8-8 ATS, 10-6 O/U)
The Giants are locked into the sixth seed, so this game is really about the Eagles trying to lock up a first-round bye. If New York decides to play its starters, the team is a good bet to cover this massive spread, especially if Jalen Hurts remains out for Philly. But both things remain unclear.
Cardinals at 49ers (-14) (O/U: 40.5)
Playoff stakes: 49ers can clinch NFC No. 1 seed with win + Eagles loss
Cardinals: 4-12 (7-8-1 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
49ers: 12-4 (9-6-1 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
On one hand, the Cardinals have only lost by 14 or more points once during their current six-game losing streak. On the other hand, it was the Niners who gave them that 28-point loss. With a bye on the line, this game could get ugly.
Cowboys at Commanders (+7) (O/U: 41)
Playoff stakes: Cowboys can clinch NFC No. 1 seed with win + losses by Eagles and 49ers
Cowboys: 12-4 (10-6 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
Commanders: 7-8-1 (7-8-1 ATS, 5-11 O/U)
Dallas’ chances of getting that top seed seem slim, but the Cowboys can still claim the NFC East title with just a win and an Eagles loss. Given that they have more than one thing to play for, they could be a full-go. The slumping Commanders with first-time starter Sam Howell aren’t built to stop them or keep up.
Rams at Seahawks (-6.5) (O/U: 41.5)
Playoff stakes: Seahawks can clinch NFC Wild Card with win + Packers loss
Rams: 5-11 (5-10-1 ATS, 7-9 O/U)
Seahawks: 8-8 (7-9 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
This spread is probably a little too large considering the Rams stayed within four points with John Wolford at quarterback in these teams’ earlier meeting — and Cam Akers is playing a lot better lately. But the Rams didn’t and still don’t have an answer for Seattle’s offense.
Lions at Packers (-4.5) (O/U: 49)
Playoff stakes: Packers can clinch NFC Wild Card with win. Lions can clinch with win + Seahawks loss
Lions: 8-8 (11-4-1 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
Packers: 8-8 (8-8 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
A playoff spot is on the line for both these teams, and as division rivals, they know one other very well. This is going to be a slugfest. That said, this total is quite high. These teams combined for just 24 points in their first game, which was played at the domed Ford Field. This game is at Lambeau.
Vikings at Bears (+7.5) (O/U: 43)
Playoff stakes: Vikings seeding in NFC
Vikings: 12-4 (6-9-1 ATS, 10-6 O/U)
Bears: 3-13 (5-10-1 ATS, 10-6 O/U)
It sounds as though the Vikings are going to play their starters and go for the No. 2 seed, which makes this spread very doable. The Bears haven’t scored more than 20 points in over five games, and now they’ll be playing without Justin Fields.
Buccaneers at Falcons (-4) (O/U: 40.5)
No playoff stakes
Buccaneers: 8-8 (4-11-1 ATS, 5-11 O/U)
Falcons: 6-10 (8-7-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U)
Texans at Colts (-2.5) (O/U: 38)
No playoff stakes
Texans: 2-13-1 (7-8-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U)
Colts: 4-11-1 (6-10 ATS, 6-10 O/U)
Panthers at Saints (-3.5) (O/U: 41.5)
No playoff stakes
Panthers: 6-10 (8-8 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
Saints: 7-9 (7-8-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U)
